Over the course of October-December this year, all three Rio Conventions are organising their regular conferences, or COPs: COP29 of the UNFCCC is ongoing and well beyond the halfway mark in Azerbaijan; COP26 of the UNCBD on biological diversity took place earlier in October in Colombia; and COP16 of the UNCCD on desertification will begin in Saudi Arabia in early December. A transformation of food- and land use systems is at the heart of mitigating and adapting to climate change, preserving biodiversity, and combating desertification, yet the current direction and pace of the transformation of food- and land use systems is not adequate to meet these objectives (as argued by the IPCC in this report). What role could COP29 play in clarifying the direction and accelerating the pace of the transition?
Aligning climate and biodiversity targets in NDCs and NBSAPs land- and food system transformations
The DDP initiative’s recent report Making it Happen: National Pathways to Net Zero shows that land use is central to mitigation of greenhouse gases in the short- and long-term, and that country-specific approaches are necessary to ensure that mitigation is compatible with the sector’s other core functions. The ongoing and upcoming national planning processes under the three Rio Conventions, including the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UNFCCC and the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) under the UNCBD, are therefore central for identifying nationally appropriate targets and transformation strategies for food- and land use systems.
In the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action launched at COP28 last year, 160 countries committed to integrating agrifood in National Adaption Plans, NDCs, NBSAPs and other related strategies before COP30. A recent study by the FAO shows that almost all countries identify agrifood systems as a priority for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the most recent NDCs, while pointing to room for improvement regarding the transparency with which the sector is covered. Rather than mere inclusion in NDCs and other national strategies, a key priority for the next generation’s NDCs due in February 2025 is showcasing a plan for the transformation of food and land use systems that aligns climate change and biodiversity targets, and that fully integrates these targets into the broader policy mix touching on forests and agriculture.
This is specifically important given that designing coherent policy mixes for food and land use systems, and the cross-ministerial coordination that this requires, has so far proven a challenge in many countries. The UAE Declaration go some way toward recognising the importance of this – and how well the next generation of NDCs build on action in food- and land use that align climate, biodiversity and other core objectives for the sector should be one of the main criteria against which the NDCs are evaluated.
Financing an acceleration of climate action in food- and land use systems
COP29 has been branded as the “finance COP” by many, and probably the most important point on the overall agenda are negotiations on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance. The lack of adequate finance remain a primordial barrier to accelerated climate action in agriculture and forestry – which stand out as the sectors facing the largest financing gap, receiving only a total of 4.3% of total climate finance despite holding a significant mitigation potential, including in the short-term, and being central for strengthening ecosystem resilience and adaptation to climate change. The financial flows to support climate action in food and land use systems would have to increase sevenfold to meet the needs as estimated in NDCs. Underpinning this gap are challenges that are specific to the land use sector, including the prevalence of informal, micro- and small enterprises in agriculture and forestry, and the lack of financial incentives to finance nature preservation.
Going from word to action in AFOLU will require solutions that increase the availability of finance to land managers in the transformation toward more sustainable land use systems. This in turn requires addressing the specific barriers to financing the food- and land use transition, and increasing investments from private entities (currently, the majority of finance come from public national and international sources). An agreement has not yet been reached in the negotiations on the NCQG, and we will know over the next days if COP29 delivers a substantial outcome on this point. A number of discussions at COP29 (including the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, discussed more below) have focused on financing food- and land use transitions specifically, but it remains unclear whether this will have much impact on the ground. Other discussions, such as those on the Tropical Forest Finance Facility led by Brazil, seem more promising.
What new initiatives relating to food- and land use at COP29 – and where are the old ones?
COP28 under the UNFCCC on climate change established a momentum for agriculture in international climate negotiations, for instance through the UAE Declaration mentioned above, the Agrifood Sharm El-Sheikh Support Programme, and the launch of the Alliance of Champions of Food System Transformation (see this blogpost for more information). COP29 and the Azerbadjani Presidency has attempted to build on this momentum, and is launching multiple initiatives for which the land use sector is central. These include the Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, aiming toimprove cooperation and coordination among existing initiatives, coalitions and networks on agriculture and identify areas not currently addressed by existing initiatives; and the COP29 Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste, which pays special attention to methane emissions from food waste.
These new initiatives certainly seek to address poignant challenges for the transformation of land- and food systems. However, many initiatives related to the sector have been launched over the last years. Beyond the ones mentioned above launched at COP28, the Global Methane Pledge and the Glasgow Declaration on Forests and Land Use, both launched at COP26, can be added to the list. Some initiatives are taking serious steps toward implementation and a transparent reporting and monitoring of the progress made toward the respective objectives. For instance, the UAE Declaration launched the Technical Cooperation Collaborative to support its implementation in June this year, and the Alliance of Champions is developing a system to monitor progress, to be launched at COP30. However, lacking transparency, monitoring and reporting of progress remain a concern for many existing initiatives, and it is important that the leaders of the initiatives prioritise responding to such questions in parallel to launching new ones. In the absence of responses to these questions, new initiatives may face an uphill struggle for being seen as credible drivers of change.