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DDP Annual Report 2024
This 2024 report analyzes detailed scenarios from ten countries collectively representing nearly half of the world’s population and a significant portion of global emissions: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and the United States, based on in-country perspectives from local experts.
The report’s deep decarbonization scenarios showcase a variety of pathways to achieve carbon neutrality while maintaining economic growth and improving social well-being
October 2024
Publication
This guide was developed through close collaboration between the 2050 Pathways Platform and the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Initiative (DDP) at IDDRI. In order to help countries achieve alignment of short-term plans with the long-term systemic transformations needed to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
November 2024
Brief
Indonesia aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Initiatives like the JETP have shown the importance of the alignment of key national energy-related decarbonization strategies. A National Dialogue in the context of the 2nd NDC would be a key tool to help move forward the alignment and optimisation of implementation efforts.
November 2023
Indonesia has a climate goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Recent initiatives like the JETP, which focuses on decarbonizing the on-grid power sector with USD20 billion in public and private financing, have brought light on the importance of the alignment of key Indonesian energy-related decarbonization strategies such as LTS-LCCR, NDCs and other plans, for effective implementation and funding. Indeed, lack of coherence creates the risk of not reaching emission reduction goals. A National Dialogue on the Acceleration of Energy Decarbonization in Indonesia would be a key tool to help move forward the alignment and optimisation of implementation efforts. By doing it in the context of the Second NDC, alignment will make possible a clear milestone for 2035 of the path and ambition level of the country to credibly achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner.
These notes present the main system transformations required to reach a decarbonization pathway, as well as how this differs from current trends and Mexico’s climate stated commitments.
These notes present the main system transformations required to reach a decarbonization pathway, as well as how this differs from current trends and Brazil’s climate stated commitments.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
Estimating net job creation in long-term decarbonization scenarios for brazil through employment factors.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Brazil. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in South Africa. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in India. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Indonesia. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for South Africa. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for Indonesia. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for India. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for Brazil. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This 4-page document describes an opportunity for taking first steps to begin decarbonisation of the South African primary steel production industry. It explains the need for industry decarbonisation, recent developments in technologies for zero-emissions primary iron production, the potential competitive advantage for a South African-located plant for export to European markets, the benefits for South Africa and Europe, measures in European markets and international trade that would be necessary to create conditions for a bankable commercial investment and the next steps key real world actors would need to take to begin creating these conditions.
This 4-page document describes an opportunity for taking first steps to begin decarbonisation of the South African primary steel production industry. It explains the need for industry decarbonisation, recent developments in technologies for zero-emissions primary iron production, the potential competitive advantage for a South African-located plant for export to European markets, the benefits for South Africa and Europe, measures in European markets and international trade that would be necessary to create conditions for a bankable commercial investment and the next steps key real world actors would need to take to begin creating these conditions.
The passenger transport sector accounted for 12% of Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2010. Two Deep Decarbonization Pathways are structured to investigate the way in which different technical and social transformations can reduce the transport-related energy use and GHG emissions. An advanced technological (AdvancedTech) scenario focuses mainly on the technological innovations and transformations in the transport and energy sector, but does not give consideration to social and behavioural factors. On the other hand, the balanced scenario is structured with the objective of developing a long-term strategy to achieve a drastic GHG emission reduction in transport sector by means of a balanced behavioural and technological changes.
A key challenge for transport policy in the UK is the Government’s own domestic climate legislation, which mandates “at least” an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050. Past analysis reveals that achieving this target translates into a requirement for the carbon intensity of transport to decline by around 70% on average by 2050. We describe two new scenarios that provide distinctive visions of how passenger transport could evolve in the future, driven by rapid technological progress, changes to societal mobility trends, and the requirement to transition towards low or net-zero energy systems. Both of the scenarios presented achieve similar levels of decarbonisation by 2050, but take very different pathways towards that destination.
The transport sector is the main emitting sector and represented about 26% of total French GHG emissions in 2010. The French DDP team chose to develop two scenarios for the passenger transport sector consistent with the 2°C target and the SNBC objectives, reaching both a reduction of about 78% of CO2 emissions compared to 1990, down to about 20 MtCO2 in 2050. These two deep decarbonization pathways embody contrasting futures of the mobility demand, as well as the supply-side solutions that will be necessary.
The transport sector is the single largest source of GHG emissions in Mexico with a fourth of the total. Two scenarios are presented, both leading to a 50% reduction in annual CO2 emissions of the passenger transport sector by 2050 (50 MtCO2) compared to the level in 2010.
Brazil faces the challenge of building upon its historically low energy-related GHG emission levels through new decarbonization strategies, while pursuing higher living standards for its population.
This report has studied the feasibility conditions of two different decarbonization pathways: one focusing on energy efficiency to obtain a strong reduction in energy demand (this pathway is highly consistent with objectives of the law on Energy Transition for Green Growth) and the other one considering potential limits to energy demand reduction and thus implying a higher level of decarbonized energy supply.
The UK has been a leader in legislating long-term climate mitigation targets and crucially setting a binding institutional and reporting framework to ensure that a series of 5-year carbon budgets are adhered to. In summary, this report seeks to demonstrate, alongside other countries, that a 2°C target could be achievable, and still remains an important political goal to aim for at the coming climate talks in Paris.
This report presents the results of a deep decarbonization analysis conducted by the Indonesian Country Research Team consisting of researchers from Institut Teknologi Bandung, particularly the Center for Research on Energy Policy “Institut Teknologi Bandung and Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management” Bogor Agriculture University. Our objective is to explore potential development pathways by which the Republic of Indonesia could achieve the deep decarbonization of its economy, to the level where it would contribute to the worldwide endeavor of limiting global temperature increases to less than 2°C.
The analysis consider two development scenarios for India and assess alternate roadmaps for transiting to a low carbon economy consistent with the globally agreed 2°C stabilization target. The report does not consider existence of a reference scenario of a world with unmitigated carbon emissions recognizing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s exhortation that “.. there is no Plan B for action as there is no Planet B“.
In this study, three Deep-Decarbonization Pathways are defined for Japan, each meeting the 2050 mitigation target, while considering different assumptions regarding the availability of low-carbon technologies. The assessments of these scenarios, using AIM/Enduse and AIM/CGE models, demonstrate that they correspond to realistic transformations and help to identify the conditions for their implementation.
Sector-based CO2 emissions scenarios to 2050 have been generated in order to explore the changes required in Mexico’s energy systems to achieve emissions reductions consistent with the internationally agreed 2°C goal. To develop these scenarios or “pathways,” tools and methodologies were used that are shared between the 16 countries contributing to the Deep-Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP).
The South African country research team explored deep decarbonization pathways that focused on development and climate, putting equal emphasis on both goals. Satisfying multiple objectives, e.g., employment, income and GHG reductions, is critical as meeting a carbon constraint is one of many goals, and not necessarily the highest priority in a country such as South Africa, which has extreme and persistent poverty and high unemployment rates. Decarbonization pathways are connected to domestic economic and social structures, as well as global trade, prices, financial flows and international agreements.
Indonesia has a climate goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Recent initiatives like the JETP, which focuses on decarbonizing the on-grid power sector with USD20 billion in public and private financing, have brought light on the importance of the alignment of key Indonesian energy-related decarbonization strategies such as LTS-LCCR, NDCs and other plans, for effective implementation and funding. Indeed, lack of coherence creates the risk of not reaching emission reduction goals. A National Dialogue on the Acceleration of Energy Decarbonization in Indonesia would be a key tool to help move forward the alignment and optimisation of implementation efforts. By doing it in the context of the Second NDC, alignment will make possible a clear milestone for 2035 of the path and ambition level of the country to credibly achieve the goal of net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner.
These notes present the main system transformations required to reach a decarbonization pathway, as well as how this differs from current trends and Mexico’s climate stated commitments.
These notes present the main system transformations required to reach a decarbonization pathway, as well as how this differs from current trends and Brazil’s climate stated commitments.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
Estimating net job creation in long-term decarbonization scenarios for brazil through employment factors.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Brazil. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in South Africa. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in India. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This report presents the main policy lessons emerging from the national Deep Decarbonization Scenarios developed in Indonesia. It includes a description of scenario’s main features, main synergies and trade-offs with country non-climate objectives, priority short-term policies and actions and key international enablers and accelerators of domestic transitions.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for South Africa. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for Indonesia. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for India. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This document presents a synthesis of key results of the decarbonization scenarios developed for Brazil. It describes the key national and sector level techno-economic transformations to 2050, their main socio-economic aspects and resulting emission profiles. It also highlights some main policy implications and challenges, investment insights and necessary developments in international enablers.
This 4-page document describes an opportunity for taking first steps to begin decarbonisation of the South African primary steel production industry. It explains the need for industry decarbonisation, recent developments in technologies for zero-emissions primary iron production, the potential competitive advantage for a South African-located plant for export to European markets, the benefits for South Africa and Europe, measures in European markets and international trade that would be necessary to create conditions for a bankable commercial investment and the next steps key real world actors would need to take to begin creating these conditions.
This 4-page document describes an opportunity for taking first steps to begin decarbonisation of the South African primary steel production industry. It explains the need for industry decarbonisation, recent developments in technologies for zero-emissions primary iron production, the potential competitive advantage for a South African-located plant for export to European markets, the benefits for South Africa and Europe, measures in European markets and international trade that would be necessary to create conditions for a bankable commercial investment and the next steps key real world actors would need to take to begin creating these conditions.
The passenger transport sector accounted for 12% of Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2010. Two Deep Decarbonization Pathways are structured to investigate the way in which different technical and social transformations can reduce the transport-related energy use and GHG emissions. An advanced technological (AdvancedTech) scenario focuses mainly on the technological innovations and transformations in the transport and energy sector, but does not give consideration to social and behavioural factors. On the other hand, the balanced scenario is structured with the objective of developing a long-term strategy to achieve a drastic GHG emission reduction in transport sector by means of a balanced behavioural and technological changes.
A key challenge for transport policy in the UK is the Government’s own domestic climate legislation, which mandates “at least” an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2050. Past analysis reveals that achieving this target translates into a requirement for the carbon intensity of transport to decline by around 70% on average by 2050. We describe two new scenarios that provide distinctive visions of how passenger transport could evolve in the future, driven by rapid technological progress, changes to societal mobility trends, and the requirement to transition towards low or net-zero energy systems. Both of the scenarios presented achieve similar levels of decarbonisation by 2050, but take very different pathways towards that destination.
The transport sector is the main emitting sector and represented about 26% of total French GHG emissions in 2010. The French DDP team chose to develop two scenarios for the passenger transport sector consistent with the 2°C target and the SNBC objectives, reaching both a reduction of about 78% of CO2 emissions compared to 1990, down to about 20 MtCO2 in 2050. These two deep decarbonization pathways embody contrasting futures of the mobility demand, as well as the supply-side solutions that will be necessary.
The transport sector is the single largest source of GHG emissions in Mexico with a fourth of the total. Two scenarios are presented, both leading to a 50% reduction in annual CO2 emissions of the passenger transport sector by 2050 (50 MtCO2) compared to the level in 2010.
Brazil faces the challenge of building upon its historically low energy-related GHG emission levels through new decarbonization strategies, while pursuing higher living standards for its population.
This report has studied the feasibility conditions of two different decarbonization pathways: one focusing on energy efficiency to obtain a strong reduction in energy demand (this pathway is highly consistent with objectives of the law on Energy Transition for Green Growth) and the other one considering potential limits to energy demand reduction and thus implying a higher level of decarbonized energy supply.
The UK has been a leader in legislating long-term climate mitigation targets and crucially setting a binding institutional and reporting framework to ensure that a series of 5-year carbon budgets are adhered to. In summary, this report seeks to demonstrate, alongside other countries, that a 2°C target could be achievable, and still remains an important political goal to aim for at the coming climate talks in Paris.
This report presents the results of a deep decarbonization analysis conducted by the Indonesian Country Research Team consisting of researchers from Institut Teknologi Bandung, particularly the Center for Research on Energy Policy “Institut Teknologi Bandung and Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management” Bogor Agriculture University. Our objective is to explore potential development pathways by which the Republic of Indonesia could achieve the deep decarbonization of its economy, to the level where it would contribute to the worldwide endeavor of limiting global temperature increases to less than 2°C.
The analysis consider two development scenarios for India and assess alternate roadmaps for transiting to a low carbon economy consistent with the globally agreed 2°C stabilization target. The report does not consider existence of a reference scenario of a world with unmitigated carbon emissions recognizing UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s exhortation that “.. there is no Plan B for action as there is no Planet B“.
In this study, three Deep-Decarbonization Pathways are defined for Japan, each meeting the 2050 mitigation target, while considering different assumptions regarding the availability of low-carbon technologies. The assessments of these scenarios, using AIM/Enduse and AIM/CGE models, demonstrate that they correspond to realistic transformations and help to identify the conditions for their implementation.
Sector-based CO2 emissions scenarios to 2050 have been generated in order to explore the changes required in Mexico’s energy systems to achieve emissions reductions consistent with the internationally agreed 2°C goal. To develop these scenarios or “pathways,” tools and methodologies were used that are shared between the 16 countries contributing to the Deep-Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP).
The South African country research team explored deep decarbonization pathways that focused on development and climate, putting equal emphasis on both goals. Satisfying multiple objectives, e.g., employment, income and GHG reductions, is critical as meeting a carbon constraint is one of many goals, and not necessarily the highest priority in a country such as South Africa, which has extreme and persistent poverty and high unemployment rates. Decarbonization pathways are connected to domestic economic and social structures, as well as global trade, prices, financial flows and international agreements.
The DDP initiative is led by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations
