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Build transport decarbonization pathways

Build transport decarbonization pathways

Pathway building tool

This website hosts a pathway building tool based on the DDP Approach that allows to articulate physical and socio-economic transformations to develop new decarbonisation pathways.

You will need from one to a few hours to develop your first pathway, depending on your expertise and knowledge.
Starting from the development of your storyline, throughout eight categories of transformations, you can then visualize your pathway in six graphic categories. At this stage, you can compare your scenario with another one, validate and save its different elements (story, computation, dashboard and graphs) or go back to correct your storyline.

Here is a beta version to build pathways for the freight transport sector in France.

Let’s try it!Beta version

In which country would you like to build a freight transport decarbonization pathways?

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Develop your storyline(Click on section labels to build your pathway)

  • How to develop your storyline (for more information, click here)
      What is a storyline for decarbonization?:

      Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.

      Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.

      For each question, you can choose one of these answers:

      A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway

      A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value

      “Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.

      A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.

      You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.

      Validation of the storyline:

      If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.

      If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers,
      the “red light” turns into “grey light” .

      If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,
      the “red light” turns into “green light” .

      Summary representations after the development and validation of your storyline

      Look at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.

      Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.

      Download your full pathway composed by the Storyline, the graphic Dashboard and all the intermediate data computed: you will find a print button (IMAGE), click and scroll to the end to “Print this page”.

      Display another set of value to compare with your scenario :

      You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.

      Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes

  • 1. Macrostructure: the production, consumption, and exchange of goods
    • Population and economy
        What will be the population, household size and GDP per capita of your country in 2050?

        In 2010, France had a total population of about 64.6 million citizens. The average household was composed of 2.23 people.

        The GDP per capita was about 30876 euros.

        Forecast for 2050

        In 2050, population will reach million citizens *. Household will be composed of pers./household *.

        The GDP per capita will be about euros *.

        * values marked with an asterix do not directly impact the results but are used for the “Scenario consistency” and the final storyline.

    • Production and consumption system
        How will a low-carbon society impact the volume of transported tonnes?

        The transformation of production and consumption patterns towards a low-carbon society impacts the volume of transported tonnes.

        The development of trends such as the shared economy, minimalist lifestyles and repair services are likely to change consumer behaviour and the use of goods. Conversely, business-as-usual practices could lead to ever-increasing and unsustainable individual consumption.

        Certain practices could reduce the volume of transported goods, in contrast to an ever-growing globalization, for example: in the agri-food sector, practices such as biodiversity and crop protection and the removal of chemical inputs; in the energy sector, fossil-fuel phase-out and energy efficiency measures; in the construction sector, the development of alternative materials; and in the manufacturing sector, the development of industrial ecology and the circular economy.

        Average transported tonnes by type of goods (Mt)

        Goods transported (Mt)

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        531

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        281

        G3 Industrial wastes

        88

        G4 Building materials

        992

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        179

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        373

    • Commercial and trade system
        How will regulations and trade patterns impact distances travelled?

        Patterns of intra and extra-European trade regulations and exchanges could impact the organization of economic activities and supply chains, and transport distances in 2050.

        The signature or reinforcement of free trade agreements could foster long distance trade. Conversely, relocation policies, import taxes, or incentives towards local consumption would lead to a decrease in the distances travelled by goods.

        Distribution of transported tonnes for each goods category by type of flow (national, import/export and transit) (% tonnes per goods category)

        National

        Import/export intra-European

        Transit intra-European

        Goods in circulation

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        84

        11

        3

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        71

        20

        7

        G3 Industrial wastes

        89

        8

        1

        G4 Building materials

        95

        3

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        69

        22

        8

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        86

        10

        3

        Note: definition of transport flows

        National: national transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point and an unloading place located in France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Import/export: import/export transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point outside of France, and an unloading place in France, or between a loading point in France and an unloading place outside of France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Transit: transit transport is any transport carried out between a loading place and an unloading place, both outside of France, which crosses part of the French territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.

        For international transport (imports/exports and transit), only the kilometres travelled on French national territory are included in the accounting for the transport demand of French goods. This is recorded as the demand for “internal” transport.

        “Transport” is defined as travel between a loading place and an unloading place. If goods are first transported from a production site to a storage depot, where they change truck to be transported to a consumption place, this is counted as two different transports.

        Distribution of transported tonnes in national flows for each goods category by trip distance range (Urban, Regional, Long distance) (% tonnes – national per goods category)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 - 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Goods in circulation - National

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        36

        56

        6

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        34

        59

        6

        G3 Industrial wastes

        58

        39

        1

        G4 Building materials

        81

        17

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        32

        57

        9

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        30

        59

        9

        Note: definition of distance ranges

        Local and urban freight (less than 50 km): This distance range corresponds to short distance trips, more often in urban areas.Regional freight (50-500 km): This distance range corresponds to trips that are typically made on the regional or interregional networks, depending on the size of the regions, but also greater than the size of a region (for ex-ample Nantes-Angers or Le Mans-Paris).Long-distance interregional freight (more than 500 km): This distance range corresponds to longer national trips (for example Quimper-Paris or Bordeaux-Paris).
    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 2. Management and operation of transport and storage infrastructure
    • Development of transport infrastructure and usage conditions
        How will infrastructure, congestion and modal regulations impact speed and cost?

        Transport infrastructure investment, congestion regulations and other modal regulations have an impact on average modal speed and access costs.

        Improving the quality of infrastructure and the efficiency of traffic regulation laws would increase the circulation speeds of road, rail, and inland waterways vehicles. Infrastructure access cost is another driver that influences modal choice as it directly impacts total modal cost and also the competition between different modes.

        Note: this section focuses only on “heavy” transport. Rail and river transport mainly compete with articulated HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles >34t). The latter represented about 90% of road Gtkm in 2010. The transformation of the road fleet in urban areas is addressed in the next section.

        Speeds of “heavy” modes by distance range (km/h)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 - 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        “Heavy” modes

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated trucks - Road

        17

        53.3

        66

        Rail

        10.5

        59.1

        82

        Inland waterways (IWW)

        15

        15

        15

        Toll cost (eur/vkm, eur/tkm)

        Articulated trucks (eur/vkm)

        Train (eur/tkm)

        Inland waterways (eur/tkm)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Access cost / toll cost

        0.06

        0.06

        0.02

        Note: In general, toll costs partially include the real costs of infrastructure usage and rarely reflect other costs such as accident or congestion costs.

    • Development of logistics infrastructure and usage conditions
        How will multimodal logistics platforms impact transshipment time and cost?

        The development of multimodal logistics platforms integrated into urban planning and traffic flow analysis could enable the development of intermodal services and impact on transshipment time and cost.

        Multimodal logistics indicators

        Rail

        Inland waterways

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Transported goods with two transshipments (% Mt)

        70

        70

        Additional waiting time (% h/tkm)

        40

        40

        Intermodal transshipment cost (eur/t)

        0.05

        0.05

        Notes: Share of transported tonnes by rail and inland waterways within an intermodal service (considering two transshipments, upstream and downstream road transport services)

        Additional waiting time due to intermodality, % of the average time delivery per kilometre for rail and inland waterways.

        Transshipment cost for intermodal services in France.

    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 3. Carriage of goods and delivery services
    • Road vehicles for urban deliveries
        How will urban access rules and planning strategies impact road vehicles?

        Transformation of urban access rules, urban planning strategies, traffic congestion situations and consumer behaviour will impact the choice of road transport vehicles.

        Choice of road vehicle for urban distance range (% tkm)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 - 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        68.2

        85.7

        84.7

        98.3

        98.3

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        25.1

        5.8

        6.8

        0.8

        0.8

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        4.1

        4.5

        4.7

        0.7

        0.7

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        2.4

        3.8

        3.6

        0

        0

        Others (bike, 2W)

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        Note: The % tkm for the different vehicles is considered broadly stable for the other distance ranges regional (50-500 km) and inter-regional (>500 km)

        Road vehicle definitions :

        Articulated HGV: Articulated heavy goods vehicles weighing between 34t and 44t and carrying a maximum payload of around 25t for the larger ones.HGV > 19t GVWR: Rigid heavy goods vehicles weighing between 21 and 26t and upwards, carrying more than 9t of payload.HGV <= 19t GVWR: Rigid heavy goods vehicles weighing up to 19t and carrying around 9t of payload.LCV < 3.5t GVWR: Light commercial vehicles weighing up to a maximum of 3.5t and carrying approximately up to 1.2 tonnes of payload.Others (bike, 2W): Motorized or non-motorized two-wheeler vehicles.

        GVWR: Gross Vehicle Weight Rating.

    • Road logistics transformation and average load improvement
        How will load factors and empty running change?

        The transformations of production and consumption patterns, digital innovations and delivery regulations will have an impact on load factor and the empty running of vehicles. These factors are influenced by the type of transported goods and route travelled, as well as time constraints driven by consumer behaviour or industrial organization (“just in time” delivery, stock management). Indeed, a continuation of the trend for “just in time” deliveries, aiming to reduce stocks, will address variations in demand or provide rapid consumer satisfaction, will maintain pressure on entire supply chains, influencing modal choices, vehicle fill rates and the proportion of empty running. Changes in delivery rules and regulations, imposing minimal delivery times on specific goods and complete transparency on delivery costs – often promoted as being free or included –, and shifts in behaviours through awareness-raising campaigns, could reduce this pressure.

        Road transport load factors of laden trips by distance range (tonnes/vehicles)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 - 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)