Visualise {country} pathways for {sector}

This page allow to display decarbonization pathways for the severall sectors in Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

Which sector and country pathways would you like to explore ?

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Develop your storyline

What is a storyline for decarbonization?

Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.

Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.

For each question, you can choose one of these answers:

A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway

A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value

“Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.

A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.

You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.

Validation of the storyline

If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.

If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers,
the “red light”   turns into “grey light”  .

If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,
the “red light”   turns into “green light”  .

Summary representations after the development and validation of your storyline

Look at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.

Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.

Display another set of value to compare with your scenario

You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.

Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes

  • 1. Macrostructure: the production, consumption, and exchange of goods
    • Population and economy
        What will be the population, household size and GDP per capita of your country in 2050?

        In 2010, France had a total population of about 64.6 million citizens. The average household was composed of 2.23 people.

        The GDP per capita was about 30876 euros.

        Forecast for 2050

        In 2050, population will reach million citizens *. Household will be composed of pers./household *.

        The GDP per capita will be about euros *.

        * values marked with an asterix do not directly impact the results but are used for the “Scenario consistency” and the final storyline.

    • Production and consumption system
        How will a low-carbon society impact the volume of transported tonnes?

        The transformation of production and consumption patterns towards a low-carbon society impacts the volume of transported tonnes.

        The development of trends such as the shared economy, minimalist lifestyles and repair services are likely to change consumer behaviour and the use of goods. Conversely, business-as-usual practices could lead to ever-increasing and unsustainable individual consumption.

        Certain practices could reduce the volume of transported goods, in contrast to an ever-growing globalization, for example: in the agri-food sector, practices such as biodiversity and crop protection and the removal of chemical inputs; in the energy sector, fossil-fuel phase-out and energy efficiency measures; in the construction sector, the development of alternative materials; and in the manufacturing sector, the development of industrial ecology and the circular economy.

        Average transported tonnes by type of goods (Mt)

        Goods transported (Mt)

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        531

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        281

        G3 Industrial wastes

        88

        G4 Building materials

        992

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        179

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        373

    • Commercial and trade system
        How will regulations and trade patterns impact distances travelled?

        Patterns of intra and extra-European trade regulations and exchanges could impact the organization of economic activities and supply chains, and transport distances in 2050.

        The signature or reinforcement of free trade agreements could foster long distance trade. Conversely, relocation policies, import taxes, or incentives towards local consumption would lead to a decrease in the distances travelled by goods.

        Distribution of transported tonnes for each goods category by type of flow (national, import/export and transit) (% tonnes per goods category)

        National

        Import/export intra-European

        Transit intra-European

        Goods in circulation

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        84

        11

        3

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        71

        20

        7

        G3 Industrial wastes

        89

        8

        1

        G4 Building materials

        95

        3

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        69

        22

        8

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        86

        10

        3

        Note: definition of transport flows

        National: national transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point and an unloading place located in France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Import/export: import/export transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point outside of France, and an unloading place in France, or between a loading point in France and an unloading place outside of France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Transit: transit transport is any transport carried out between a loading place and an unloading place, both outside of France, which crosses part of the French territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.

        For international transport (imports/exports and transit), only the kilometres travelled on French national territory are included in the accounting for the transport demand of French goods. This is recorded as the demand for “internal” transport.

        “Transport” is defined as travel between a loading place and an unloading place. If goods are first transported from a production site to a storage depot, where they change truck to be transported to a consumption place, this is counted as two different transports.

        Distribution of transported tonnes in national flows for each goods category by trip distance range (Urban, Regional, Long distance) (% tonnes – national per goods category)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Goods in circulation – National

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        36

        56

        6