Visualise {country} pathways for {sector}

This page allow to display decarbonization pathways for the severall sectors in Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

Which sector and country pathways would you like to explore ?

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Develop your storyline

What is a storyline for decarbonization?

Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.

Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.

For each question, you can choose one of these answers:

A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway

A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value

“Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.

A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.

You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.

Validation of the storyline

If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.

If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers,
the “red light”   turns into “grey light”  .

If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,
the “red light”   turns into “green light”  .

Summary representations after the development and validation of your storyline

Look at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.

Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.

Display another set of value to compare with your scenario

You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.

Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes

  • 1. Macrostructure: the production, consumption, and exchange of goods
    • Population and economy
        What will be the population, household size and GDP per capita of your country in 2050?

        In 2010, France had a total population of about 64.6 million citizens. The average household was composed of 2.23 people.

        The GDP per capita was about 30876 euros.

        Forecast for 2050

        In 2050, population will reach million citizens *. Household will be composed of pers./household *.

        The GDP per capita will be about euros *.

        * values marked with an asterix do not directly impact the results but are used for the “Scenario consistency” and the final storyline.

    • Production and consumption system
        How will a low-carbon society impact the volume of transported tonnes?

        The transformation of production and consumption patterns towards a low-carbon society impacts the volume of transported tonnes.

        The development of trends such as the shared economy, minimalist lifestyles and repair services are likely to change consumer behaviour and the use of goods. Conversely, business-as-usual practices could lead to ever-increasing and unsustainable individual consumption.

        Certain practices could reduce the volume of transported goods, in contrast to an ever-growing globalization, for example: in the agri-food sector, practices such as biodiversity and crop protection and the removal of chemical inputs; in the energy sector, fossil-fuel phase-out and energy efficiency measures; in the construction sector, the development of alternative materials; and in the manufacturing sector, the development of industrial ecology and the circular economy.

        Average transported tonnes by type of goods (Mt)

        Goods transported (Mt)

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        531

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        281

        G3 Industrial wastes

        88

        G4 Building materials

        992

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        179

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        373

    • Commercial and trade system
        How will regulations and trade patterns impact distances travelled?

        Patterns of intra and extra-European trade regulations and exchanges could impact the organization of economic activities and supply chains, and transport distances in 2050.

        The signature or reinforcement of free trade agreements could foster long distance trade. Conversely, relocation policies, import taxes, or incentives towards local consumption would lead to a decrease in the distances travelled by goods.

        Distribution of transported tonnes for each goods category by type of flow (national, import/export and transit) (% tonnes per goods category)

        National

        Import/export intra-European

        Transit intra-European

        Goods in circulation

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        84

        11

        3

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        71

        20

        7

        G3 Industrial wastes

        89

        8

        1

        G4 Building materials

        95

        3

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        69

        22

        8

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        86

        10

        3

        Note: definition of transport flows

        National: national transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point and an unloading place located in France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Import/export: import/export transport represents any transport carried out between a loading point outside of France, and an unloading place in France, or between a loading point in France and an unloading place outside of France, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.Transit: transit transport is any transport carried out between a loading place and an unloading place, both outside of France, which crosses part of the French territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle.

        For international transport (imports/exports and transit), only the kilometres travelled on French national territory are included in the accounting for the transport demand of French goods. This is recorded as the demand for “internal” transport.

        “Transport” is defined as travel between a loading place and an unloading place. If goods are first transported from a production site to a storage depot, where they change truck to be transported to a consumption place, this is counted as two different transports.

        Distribution of transported tonnes in national flows for each goods category by trip distance range (Urban, Regional, Long distance) (% tonnes – national per goods category)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Goods in circulation – National

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry

        36

        56

        6

        G2 Heavy industry materials

        34

        59

        6

        G3 Industrial wastes

        58

        39

        1

        G4 Building materials

        81

        17

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods

        32

        57

        9

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods

        30

        59

        9

        Note: definition of distance ranges

        Local and urban freight (less than 50 km): This distance range corresponds to short distance trips, more often in urban areas.Regional freight (50-500 km): This distance range corresponds to trips that are typically made on the regional or interregional networks, depending on the size of the regions, but also greater than the size of a region (for ex-ample Nantes-Angers or Le Mans-Paris).Long-distance interregional freight (more than 500 km): This distance range corresponds to longer national trips (for example Quimper-Paris or Bordeaux-Paris).
    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 2. Management and operation of transport and storage infrastructure
    • Development of transport infrastructure and usage conditions
        How will infrastructure, congestion and modal regulations impact speed and cost?

        Transport infrastructure investment, congestion regulations and other modal regulations have an impact on average modal speed and access costs.

        Improving the quality of infrastructure and the efficiency of traffic regulation laws would increase the circulation speeds of road, rail, and inland waterways vehicles. Infrastructure access cost is another driver that influences modal choice as it directly impacts total modal cost and also the competition between different modes.

        Note: this section focuses only on “heavy” transport. Rail and river transport mainly compete with articulated HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles >34t). The latter represented about 90% of road Gtkm in 2010. The transformation of the road fleet in urban areas is addressed in the next section.

        Speeds of “heavy” modes by distance range (km/h)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        “Heavy” modes

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated trucks – Road

        17

        53.3

        66

        Rail

        10.5

        59.1

        82

        Inland waterways (IWW)

        15

        15

        15

        Toll cost (eur/vkm, eur/tkm)

        Articulated trucks (eur/vkm)

        Train (eur/tkm)

        Inland waterways (eur/tkm)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Access cost / toll cost

        0.06

        0.06

        0.02

        Note: In general, toll costs partially include the real costs of infrastructure usage and rarely reflect other costs such as accident or congestion costs.

    • Development of logistics infrastructure and usage conditions
        How will multimodal logistics platforms impact transshipment time and cost?

        The development of multimodal logistics platforms integrated into urban planning and traffic flow analysis could enable the development of intermodal services and impact on transshipment time and cost.

        Multimodal logistics indicators

        Rail

        Inland waterways

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Transported goods with two transshipments (% Mt)

        70

        70

        Additional waiting time (% h/tkm)

        40

        40

        Intermodal transshipment cost (eur/t)

        0.05

        0.05

        Notes: Share of transported tonnes by rail and inland waterways within an intermodal service (considering two transshipments, upstream and downstream road transport services)

        Additional waiting time due to intermodality, % of the average time delivery per kilometre for rail and inland waterways.

        Transshipment cost for intermodal services in France.

    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 3. Carriage of goods and delivery services
    • Road vehicles for urban deliveries
        How will urban access rules and planning strategies impact road vehicles?

        Transformation of urban access rules, urban planning strategies, traffic congestion situations and consumer behaviour will impact the choice of road transport vehicles.

        Choice of road vehicle for urban distance range (% tkm)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        68.2

        85.7

        84.7

        98.3

        98.3

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        25.1

        5.8

        6.8

        0.8

        0.8

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        4.1

        4.5

        4.7

        0.7

        0.7

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        2.4

        3.8

        3.6

        0

        0

        Others (bike, 2W)

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        Note: The % tkm for the different vehicles is considered broadly stable for the other distance ranges regional (50-500 km) and inter-regional (>500 km)

        Road vehicle definitions :

        Articulated HGV: Articulated heavy goods vehicles weighing between 34t and 44t and carrying a maximum payload of around 25t for the larger ones.HGV > 19t GVWR: Rigid heavy goods vehicles weighing between 21 and 26t and upwards, carrying more than 9t of payload.HGV <= 19t GVWR: Rigid heavy goods vehicles weighing up to 19t and carrying around 9t of payload.LCV < 3.5t GVWR: Light commercial vehicles weighing up to a maximum of 3.5t and carrying approximately up to 1.2 tonnes of payload.Others (bike, 2W): Motorized or non-motorized two-wheeler vehicles.

        GVWR: Gross Vehicle Weight Rating.

    • Road logistics transformation and average load improvement
        How will load factors and empty running change?

        The transformations of production and consumption patterns, digital innovations and delivery regulations will have an impact on load factor and the empty running of vehicles. These factors are influenced by the type of transported goods and route travelled, as well as time constraints driven by consumer behaviour or industrial organization (“just in time” delivery, stock management). Indeed, a continuation of the trend for “just in time” deliveries, aiming to reduce stocks, will address variations in demand or provide rapid consumer satisfaction, will maintain pressure on entire supply chains, influencing modal choices, vehicle fill rates and the proportion of empty running. Changes in delivery rules and regulations, imposing minimal delivery times on specific goods and complete transparency on delivery costs – often promoted as being free or included –, and shifts in behaviours through awareness-raising campaigns, could reduce this pressure.

        Road transport load factors of laden trips by distance range (tonnes/vehicles)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        21.1

        14.38

        12.4

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        10

        5.95

        5.6

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        3.5

        2.52

        3.6

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        0.37

        0.57

        N/A

        N/A

        Others (bike, 2W)

        0.01

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        Road transport empty running by distance range (% total vkm)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        50

        21

        6

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        47

        19

        3

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        41

        8

        6

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        36

        31

        N/A

        N/A

        Others (bike, 2W)

        33

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

    • Truck companies: drivers’ working conditions and structural costs
        How will the structural costs of road transport companies and drivers’ salaries change?

        In 2020, average employee costs (including gross fixed salaries and other driver benefits) represented about 33% of the full service costs (excluding margins). Employee costs are strongly influenced by intra-EU competition and regulations. In addition, in 2010, other structural costs (including insurance, other taxes and structural charges) represented about 15% of the full service costs (excluding margins).

        Salaries, working time and structural costs

        2010

        2050

        Salaries (eur/h)

        19

        Working time (h/year/veh)

        2467

        Structural cost (% of full cost)

        15

    • Rail and IWW freight transport costs
        Will the evolution of rail and inland waterways transport costs improve their competitiveness with road HGV vehicles?

        The development of alternative modes will have an impact on the costs of rail and inland waterways freight transport services (excluding toll costs). They depend on a variety of factors (vehicle costs, structural costs, fuel costs, salaries…).

        Modal cost, excluding tolls (eur/tkm)

        2010

        2050

        Rail

        0.15

        Inland waterways

        0.1

    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 4. Supply of low-carbon vehicles
    • Truck prices and maintenance costs
        How will truck prices and maintenance costs change?

        Truck prices and maintenance costs notably depend on environmental regulations regarding internal combustion engines, improvement in battery electric vehicles, and the development of H2-powered vehicles. In 2010, the cost of vehicle ownership amounted to about 15% of full service costs (excluding margins), while maintenance costs and tyres represented about 8% of the full service costs (excluding margins).

        Vehicles sale price (eur/veh)

        Vehicles Maintenance price (eur/km)

        Articulated trucks (mainly 34 – 44t)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        New Liquid fuel – ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)

        111419

        0.12

        New Gas – ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)

        161889

        0.12

        New BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle)

        239872

        0.06

        New PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)

        154918

        0.06

        New FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle)

        259439

        0.06

    • Road vehicle fleets and alternative engines
        How will technological innovation and financial incentives change the vehicle fleet?

        Technological innovation and financial incentives could foster the emergence of alternative vehicles and will influence the renewal rate of the transport vehicle fleet. In 2010, the road transport vehicle fleet was made up almost exclusively of liquid fuel vehicles. Over the period 2001-2010, about 121.37 million vehicles were sold per year, with a fleet average annual mileage of 23911 km/year/veh. Road transport represented more than 0% of total freight transport and around 42.6 Gvkm (vehicle-km). The proliferation of alternative fuel sources is a key technological solution for the future and purchase prices are a sensitive parameter in this regard.

        Note: the annual mileage of each vehicle category may be affected by the technological future of engine types and fuels.

        Average annual mileage of road vehicles (km/year/veh)

        Articulated HGV

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        Others (bike, 2W)

        Average mileage

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        km/year/veh

        33068

        48856

        97919

        10132

        2000

        Vehicle fleets by fuel type (% stock)

        Articulated HGV

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        Others (bike, 2W)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Liquid fuel – ICE 

        100

        100

        100

        100

        0

        CH4 gas – ICE 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        BEV

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        PHEV 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        FCEV 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        0

        Non motorized 

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        100

        Total annual sales by vehicle type (000’s veh)

        Articulated HGV

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        Others (bike, 2W)

        Annual sales

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        000’s veh

        12.3

        7

        29.5

        72.4

        N/A

        N/A

        Vehicle sales by engine type (% annual sales)

        Articulated HGV

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        Others (bike, 2W)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Liquid fuel – ICE 

        99

        99

        100

        99

        N/A

        N/A

        CH4 gas – ICE 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        N/A

        N/A

        BEV

        0

        0

        0

        0

        N/A

        N/A

        PHEV 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        N/A

        N/A

        FCEV 

        0

        0

        0

        0

        N/A

        N/A

        Non motorized 

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

        N/A

    • Road energy consumptions
        How will energy consumption and electric mobility improve?

        Energy consumption improvements are due to driving measures and technical improvements (automation, tyres, braking systems, aerodynamics…). Electric mobility depends on the proliferation of PHEV and FCEV.

        Thermal engine (MJ/vkm)

        Battery electric engine (kWh/vkm)

        H2 Fuel-cell engine (MJ/vkm)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        0

        0

        0

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        0

        0

        0

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        0

        0

        0

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        0

        0

        0

        2W – motorized

        0

        0

        0

        PHEV Electric mobility (% vkm)

        FCEV Electric mobility (% vkm)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Articulated HGV

        0

        0

        HGV > 19t GVWR

        0

        0

        HGV < 19t GVWR

        0

        0

        LCV < 3.5t GVWR

        0

        0

        2W – motorized

        0

        0

        Note: for PHEV, energy consumption corresponds to an average value between the share of internal combustion and battery electric engines efficiencies. For FCEV, energy consumption corresponds to an average value between the share of battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell engine efficiencies.

        Note: for electricity consumption, an additional distribution and transformation efficiency of 85% in 2010 increasing to 87% in 2050 is accounted for, between the electricity production facilities and the vehicles.

    • Rail and IWW – alternative fuels and energy consumption
        How will alternative fuels develop in rail and inland waterway transport, and what consumption gains will there be?

        Energy consumption gains will depend on driving measures and technical improvements for each engine type in 2050. In 2010, liquid fuel was the only fuel used for IWW. For rail transport, electricity and liquid fuels were used at 85% and 15% respectively. The average energy consumption was 0.85 MJ/tkm for IWW internal combustion engines, 0.3 kWh/tkm for IWW electric engines, and about 1.0 MJ/tkm for IWW H2-powered engines. Rail freight average consumption was about 0.15 MJ/tkm for thermal engines and 0.05 kWh/tkm for electric engines.

        Liquid fuel – ICE

        CH4 gas – ICE

        Electricity

        Hydrogen

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Rail

        15

        0

        85

        0

        IWW

        100

        0

        0

        0

        Thermal engine (% MJ/tkm)

        Battery electric engine (% kWh/tkm)

        H2 Fuel-cell engine (% MJ/tkm)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Rail

        0

        0

        0

        IWW

        0

        0

        0

    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 5. Supply low-carbon fuels
    • Liquid and CH4 gas biofuels supply
        How will the share of biofuels in blended fuels change for the land transport sector?

        The evolution of the agri-food system and the allocation of biofuels for industries will change the amount of liquid and gaseous biofuels available for the land transport sector in 2050. In 2020, about 0 EJ of bioethanol and biodiesel were used for freight transport, representing about 0 % of the total liquid biofuels available that year in France.

        Share of liquid and gaseous biofuels in blended fuels (%)

        2010

        2050

        Liquid biofuel

        0

        Gas biofuel

        0

        Note: the carbon emissions from liquid fuel and CH4 gas production (Well to Tank – WTT) are considered stable for each fuel type between 2010 and 2050. Liquid fossil fuel carbon content equals 19 gCO2eq/MJ (WTT) and 71 gCO2eq/MJ (Tank to Wheel – TTW). CH4 fossil fuel carbon content is 12 gCO2eq/MJ (WTT) and 57 gCO2eq/MJ (TTW). Liquid biofuel carbon content equals to 16 gCO2eq/MJ (WTT) and 0 gCO2eq/MJ (TTW). CH4 biogas carbon content equals to 37 gCO2eq/MJ (WTT) and 0 gCO2eq/MJ (TTW).

    • Electricity and electro-hydrogen supply
        What will be the impact of low-carbon energies and hydrogen on the electricity mix?

        The development of low-carbon energies could strongly reduce the share of fossil energies in the electricity mix of any country by 2050. It could impact the average carbon content of final electricity which was about 56.87 gCO2/kWh in 2010. In 2010, hydrogen from electrolysis for transport usage was almost non-existent, with only very specific niches, but this volume could grow by 2050.

        The electric grid is present throughout the country but requires specific adaptations, for example to develop adapted power charging stations for road transport.

        % of electricity consumption

        Carbon content of electricity production (gC02/kWhe)

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        Coal

        3

        970

        970

        Liquid fuel

        1

        648

        648

        Gas

        6

        354

        354

        Nuclear & renewables (mainly hydro)

        90

        0

        0

        Note: carbon content of each energy vector is assumed to be constant between 2010 and 2050.

        Note: in the table above, “liquid fuel” and “gas” are from fossil sources only, because all biofuels will be required by other sectors (e.g. industry, mobility…).

        Share of hydrogen from electrolysis in domestic production (%)

        2010

        2050

        H2 from electrolysis

        0

        Note: carbon content of H2 from electrolysis depends on the evolution of the carbon content of the electricity grid.

    • Final fuel prices
        Will the carbon market, along with social and environmental costs, have an impact on fuel prices?

        Evolution of the carbon market and the integration of social and environmental costs could have an impact on fuel prices.

        In 2010, final fuel prices were mostly dependent on the gross value of fuels (global prices, distribution costs, new generation technologies…) and different taxes:

        Taxes on the carbon emissions of fuels (carbon tax, carbon markets…)Other non-CO2 taxes on fuels (extra-taxes, taxes to reflect the costs of air pollution caused by internal combustion engines, taxes to reflect the costs of noise pollution caused by internal combustion engines…) Value added tax of about 20% in France

        In 2010, fuel expenditure represented about 25% of the full cost of the service (excluding margins).

        Fuel prices

        2010

        2050

        Liquid fuel – Fossil (eur/L)

        0.47

        Liquid fuel – Bio (eur/L)

        0.86

        CH4 gas – Fossil (eur/kg)

        0.63

        CH4 gas – Bio (eur/kg)

        1.66

        Electricity (eur/kWh)

        0.1

        H2 (eur/kg)

        10

        Carbon tax (eur/tCO2)*

        2010

        2050

        Carbon tax for fuels used by companies

        0

        * (this value is used in consistency check only)

        Road, other non-CO2 taxes on fuel use (% of the final fuel price)

        2010

        2050

        Road – Liquid fuel

        31

        Road – CH4 gas fuels

        6

        Road – Electricity

        17

        Road – H2

        0

        Note: a tax exemption of 30% is included in road non-CO2 taxes for 2010 and 2020 values.

        Rail and IWW, other non-CO2 taxes on fuel use (% of final fuel price)*

        2010

        2050

        Rail and IWW – Liquid fuel

        45

        Rail and IWW – CH4 gas fuels

        9

        Rail and IWW – Electricity

        24

        Rail and IWW – H2

        0

        * (values marked with an asterix do not directly impact the results but are used for the “Scenario consistency” and the final storyline)

    • Please, feed each sub-section above and explain us your choices below (ideally with sentences, as shown in the text example)

  • 6. Commissioning and selecting transport and multimodal services
    • Modal shares for national transport services
        How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of national transport?

        Transformations in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for national trips by 2050. In 2010, travels under 50 km in France were almost exclusively achieved by road for all types of goods, with a share amounting to 99 % (Mt) of national transport, and corresponding to 1180.42 Mt. Over the same period, the share of road transport was lower for longer distances. This left room for other modes, notably rail transport for heavy industry (G2) and building materials (G4) for distances over 500 km, with 39 and 34, respectively, of the transported tonnes.

        Distribution of tons transported nationally for each goods category by distance range (% Mt)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Year

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry
        Road

        99

        94

        88

        Rail

        0

        3

        9

        IWW

        0

        1

        1

        G2 Heavy industry materials
        Road

        94

        82

        60

        Rail

        0

        13

        39

        IWW

        5

        3

        0

        G3 Industrial wastes
        Road

        99

        94

        76

        Rail

        0

        3

        23

        IWW

        0

        2

        0

        G4 Building materials
        Road

        99

        88

        63

        Rail

        0

        4

        34

        IWW

        0

        6

        1

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        99

        92

        85

        Rail

        0

        7

        14

        IWW

        0

        0

        0

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        99

        93

        88

        Rail

        0

        5

        11

        IWW

        0

        1

        0

    • Modal shares for import/export transport services
        How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of import/export trips?

        Transformation in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of the different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for import/export trips by 2050. In 2010, river transport represented a significant share of domestic import/export transport for distances under 500 km, except for low value-added goods, which were mainly transported by road. For example, about 26% of the tonnage of heavy industry materials (G2) were carried by boat for distances under 500 km, representing 9.9 Mt. To a very large extent, road remained the main mode of transport for trips over 500 km.

        Distribution of transported tonnes for import/export transport for each goods category by distance range (% Mt)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Year

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry
        Road

        30

        69

        99

        Rail

        0

        8

        0

        IWW

        69

        21

        0

        G2 Heavy industry materials
        Road

        18

        62

        99

        Rail

        0

        16

        0

        IWW

        81

        21

        0

        G3 Industrial wastes
        Road

        27

        78

        100

        Rail

        0

        6

        0

        IWW

        72

        15

        0

        G4 Building materials
        Road

        61

        69

        99

        Rail

        0

        12

        0

        IWW

        38

        18

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        96

        86

        100

        Rail

        0

        11

        0

        IWW

        3

        2

        0

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        63

        71

        99

        Rail

        0

        20

        0

        IWW

        36

        7

        0

    • Modal shares for transit transport services
        How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of transit trips?

        Transformations in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of the different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for transit trips by 2050. In 2010, a very high share of transit travels over 500 km in France were conducted by road, with a share above 97 % (Mt) for all types of goods, corresponding to 66.03 Mt. Other transit distances were mainly accomplished by boat.

        Distribution of transported tonnes in transit for each goods category by distance range (% Mt)

        Urban (< 50 km)

        Regional (50 – 500 km)

        Long distance (> 500 km)

        Year

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        2010

        2050

        G1 Agri-food industry
        Road

        0

        0

        98

        Rail

        0

        0

        1

        IWW

        100

        100

        0

        G2 Heavy industry materials
        Road

        0

        0

        95

        Rail

        0

        0

        4

        IWW

        100

        100

        0

        G3 Industrial wastes
        Road

        34

        0

        97

        Rail

        33

        0

        2

        IWW

        33

        100

        0

        G4 Building materials
        Road

        0

        0

        95

        Rail

        0

        0

        4

        IWW

        100

        100

        0

        G5 Low value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        0

        0

        98

        Rail

        0

        0

        1

        IWW

        100

        100

        0

        G6 High value-added manufactured goods
        Road

        0

        0

        96

        Rail

        0

        0

        3

        IWW

        100

        100

        0

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Description of the transformations of the passenger transport sector in France by 2050

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