Visualise {country} pathways for {sector}

What will be the population, household size and GDP per capita of your country in 2050?

In 2010, France had a total population of about 64.6 million citizens. The average household was composed of 2.23 people.

The GDP per capita was about 30876 euros.

How will a low-carbon society impact the volume of transported tonnes?

The transformation of production and consumption patterns towards a low-carbon society impacts the volume of transported tonnes.

The development of trends such as the shared economy, minimalist lifestyles and repair services are likely to change consumer behaviour and the use of goods. Conversely, business-as-usual practices could lead to ever-increasing and unsustainable individual consumption.

Certain practices could reduce the volume of transported goods, in contrast to an ever-growing globalization, for example: in the agri-food sector, practices such as biodiversity and crop protection and the removal of chemical inputs; in the energy sector, fossil-fuel phase-out and energy efficiency measures; in the construction sector, the development of alternative materials; and in the manufacturing sector, the development of industrial ecology and the circular economy.

How will regulations and trade patterns impact distances travelled?

Patterns of intra and extra-European trade regulations and exchanges could impact the organization of economic activities and supply chains, and transport distances in 2050.

The signature or reinforcement of free trade agreements could foster long distance trade. Conversely, relocation policies, import taxes, or incentives towards local consumption would lead to a decrease in the distances travelled by goods.

How will infrastructure, congestion and modal regulations impact speed and cost?

Transport infrastructure investment, congestion regulations and other modal regulations have an impact on average modal speed and access costs.

Improving the quality of infrastructure and the efficiency of traffic regulation laws would increase the circulation speeds of road, rail, and inland waterways vehicles. Infrastructure access cost is another driver that influences modal choice as it directly impacts total modal cost and also the competition between different modes.

Note: this section focuses only on “heavy” transport. Rail and river transport mainly compete with articulated HGVs (Heavy Goods Vehicles >34t). The latter represented about 90% of road Gtkm in 2010. The transformation of the road fleet in urban areas is addressed in the next section.

How will multimodal logistics platforms impact transshipment time and cost?

The development of multimodal logistics platforms integrated into urban planning and traffic flow analysis could enable the development of intermodal services and impact on transshipment time and cost.

How will urban access rules and planning strategies impact road vehicles?

Transformation of urban access rules, urban planning strategies, traffic congestion situations and consumer behaviour will impact the choice of road transport vehicles.

How will load factors and empty running change?

The transformations of production and consumption patterns, digital innovations and delivery regulations will have an impact on load factor and the empty running of vehicles. These factors are influenced by the type of transported goods and route travelled, as well as time constraints driven by consumer behaviour or industrial organization (“just in time” delivery, stock management). Indeed, a continuation of the trend for “just in time” deliveries, aiming to reduce stocks, will address variations in demand or provide rapid consumer satisfaction, will maintain pressure on entire supply chains, influencing modal choices, vehicle fill rates and the proportion of empty running. Changes in delivery rules and regulations, imposing minimal delivery times on specific goods and complete transparency on delivery costs – often promoted as being free or included –, and shifts in behaviours through awareness-raising campaigns, could reduce this pressure.

How will the structural costs of road transport companies and drivers’ salaries change?

In 2020, average employee costs (including gross fixed salaries and other driver benefits) represented about 33% of the full service costs (excluding margins). Employee costs are strongly influenced by intra-EU competition and regulations. In addition, in 2010, other structural costs (including insurance, other taxes and structural charges) represented about 15% of the full service costs (excluding margins).

Will the evolution of rail and inland waterways transport costs improve their competitiveness with road HGV vehicles?

The development of alternative modes will have an impact on the costs of rail and inland waterways freight transport services (excluding toll costs). They depend on a variety of factors (vehicle costs, structural costs, fuel costs, salaries…).

How will truck prices and maintenance costs change?

Truck prices and maintenance costs notably depend on environmental regulations regarding internal combustion engines, improvement in battery electric vehicles, and the development of H2-powered vehicles. In 2010, the cost of vehicle ownership amounted to about 15% of full service costs (excluding margins), while maintenance costs and tyres represented about 8% of the full service costs (excluding margins).

How will technological innovation and financial incentives change the vehicle fleet?

Technological innovation and financial incentives could foster the emergence of alternative vehicles and will influence the renewal rate of the transport vehicle fleet. In 2010, the road transport vehicle fleet was made up almost exclusively of liquid fuel vehicles. Over the period 2001-2010, about 121.37 million vehicles were sold per year, with a fleet average annual mileage of 23911 km/year/veh. Road transport represented more than 0% of total freight transport and around 42.6 Gvkm (vehicle-km). The proliferation of alternative fuel sources is a key technological solution for the future and purchase prices are a sensitive parameter in this regard.

Note: the annual mileage of each vehicle category may be affected by the technological future of engine types and fuels.

How will energy consumption and electric mobility improve?

Energy consumption improvements are due to driving measures and technical improvements (automation, tyres, braking systems, aerodynamics…). Electric mobility depends on the proliferation of PHEV and FCEV.

How will alternative fuels develop in rail and inland waterway transport, and what consumption gains will there be?

Energy consumption gains will depend on driving measures and technical improvements for each engine type in 2050. In 2010, liquid fuel was the only fuel used for IWW. For rail transport, electricity and liquid fuels were used at 85% and 15% respectively. The average energy consumption was 0.85 MJ/tkm for IWW internal combustion engines, 0.3 kWh/tkm for IWW electric engines, and about 1.0 MJ/tkm for IWW H2-powered engines. Rail freight average consumption was about 0.15 MJ/tkm for thermal engines and 0.05 kWh/tkm for electric engines.

How will the share of biofuels in blended fuels change for the land transport sector?

The evolution of the agri-food system and the allocation of biofuels for industries will change the amount of liquid and gaseous biofuels available for the land transport sector in 2050. In 2020, about 0 EJ of bioethanol and biodiesel were used for freight transport, representing about 0 % of the total liquid biofuels available that year in France.

What will be the impact of low-carbon energies and hydrogen on the electricity mix?

The development of low-carbon energies could strongly reduce the share of fossil energies in the electricity mix of any country by 2050. It could impact the average carbon content of final electricity which was about 56.87 gCO2/kWh in 2010. In 2010, hydrogen from electrolysis for transport usage was almost non-existent, with only very specific niches, but this volume could grow by 2050.

The electric grid is present throughout the country but requires specific adaptations, for example to develop adapted power charging stations for road transport.

Will the carbon market, along with social and environmental costs, have an impact on fuel prices?

Evolution of the carbon market and the integration of social and environmental costs could have an impact on fuel prices.

In 2010, final fuel prices were mostly dependent on the gross value of fuels (global prices, distribution costs, new generation technologies…) and different taxes:

In 2010, fuel expenditure represented about 25% of the full cost of the service (excluding margins).

How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of national transport?

Transformations in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for national trips by 2050. In 2010, travels under 50 km in France were almost exclusively achieved by road for all types of goods, with a share amounting to 99 % (Mt) of national transport, and corresponding to 1180.42 Mt. Over the same period, the share of road transport was lower for longer distances. This left room for other modes, notably rail transport for heavy industry (G2) and building materials (G4) for distances over 500 km, with 39 and 34, respectively, of the transported tonnes.

How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of import/export trips?

Transformation in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of the different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for import/export trips by 2050. In 2010, river transport represented a significant share of domestic import/export transport for distances under 500 km, except for low value-added goods, which were mainly transported by road. For example, about 26% of the tonnage of heavy industry materials (G2) were carried by boat for distances under 500 km, representing 9.9 Mt. To a very large extent, road remained the main mode of transport for trips over 500 km.

How will the transformation of transport services change the modal shares of transit trips?

Transformations in terms of costs, time, flexibility, and the quality of the different modal services will change the modal shares of road, rail, and inland waterways services for transit trips by 2050. In 2010, a very high share of transit travels over 500 km in France were conducted by road, with a share above 97 % (Mt) for all types of goods, corresponding to 66.03 Mt. Other transit distances were mainly accomplished by boat.