Visualise {country} pathways for {sector}

This page allow to display decarbonization pathways for the severall sectors in Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

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Develop your storyline

What is a storyline for decarbonization?

Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.

Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.

For each question, you can choose one of these answers:

A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway

A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value

“Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.

A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.

You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.

Validation of the storyline

If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.

If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers,
the “red light”   turns into “grey light”  .

If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,
the “red light”   turns into “green light”  .

Summary representations after the development and validation of your storyline

Look at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.

Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.

Display another set of value to compare with your scenario

You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.

Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes

  • 1. Demography and economics
    • Population
        What will be the size of your country population in 2050?

        In 2010, France had a population of about 60 901 thousand citizens over 6 years, for a total of around 65 million people.
        Note: The mobility of children under 6 years is not considered.

        69 065 thousands citizens.
        thousands citizens.
    • Household size
        What will be the average household size in 2050?

        In 2010, the average French households were composed by 2.2 people.

        2.0 pers./household.
        pers./household.
    • Household income
        What will be the average household disposable income in 2050?

        In 2010, the average household disposable income in France amounted to 23,000 eur and the total household disposable income was about 30% of GDP. Over the period 2000-2010, the average annual GDP growth was 1.4% per year.

        32,000 eur/year
        k€/year.

      • Average annual GDP growth over the period 2010-2050: %/year
      • Total household disposable incomes is around: % of GDP in 2050
  • 2. Human settlement, land development and spatial organization
    • Metropolitan population
        What will be the share of the population living in Metropolitan areas in 2050?

        In 2010, about 25% of the population lived in metropolitan areas and 75% in non-metropolitan areas, of which half in suburban areas and the other half in rural areas. The metropolitan areas in France have been defined as: Paris, Departments of the Paris region 92-93-94 and all city centers of “urban poles” with more than 100,000 inhabitants. in 2008 (the smallest city center is the city of Montbéliard with about 25,000 inhabitants).

        24% of the population.
        % of the population.
    • Constrained mobility for metropolitan households
        What will be the average distance travelled for constrained mobility in metropolitan areas in 2050?

        In 2010, a French citizen living in metropolitan areas travelled approximately 4,770 km / year to connect his different constrained activities. Constrained activities are defined as work-and shopping and acces to public services like schools, health, sport and other social facilities, where your freedom to decide whether or not to complete this activity is limited.

        4,100 km per capita (pkm/cap) for constrained mobility for inhabitants of metropolitan areas.
        km per capita (pkm/cap) for constrained mobility for inhabitants of metropolitan areas.
    • Constrained mobility for non-metropolitan households
        How will the distance between constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas change in 2050?

        In 2010, a French citizen living in Non-Metropolitan areas had to travel about 27% more than a French citizen living in Metropolitan areas to connect his different constrained activities. This means that the different constrained activities (work, home, going to school and reaching other public services) were further away from each other.


        The distance to connect the constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas will be reduced to 10 % in 2050.
        The distance between constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitanareas will be reduced to % by 2050.
  • 3. Sociocultural practices and lifestyles
    • Teleworking for metropolitan households
        In metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking ?

        Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activities and requires daily commuting. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.

        4% of total constrained activities.
        % of total constrained activities.
      • Share of population concerned by teleworking in 2050 : % metropolitan population in 2050
      • Days of teleworking for a concerned employee in Metropolitan areas in 2050: days/month
    • Teleworking for non-metropolitan households
        In non-metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking?

        Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activity which needs a daily commuting activity. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.

        4% of total constrained activities.
        % of total constrained activities.
      • Population Share concerned by teleworking in 2050: % Non-metropolitan Population in 2050
      • Days of teleworking for a concerned employee in Non-metropolitan Population in 2050: days/month
    • ICTs and collaborative mobility
        What will be the occupancy rate of vehicles in 2050 due to development of the collaborative mobility?

        The development of Information and Communication Technologies and other tehnological transformations will support the development of the collaborative mobility. In 2010, the average occupancy rate of cars amounted to 1.43 persons:

        Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
        Metropolitan population1.291.46
        Non-metropolitan population 1.36 1.53

        Variation (%) of car occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
        Metropolitan population160
        Non-metropolitan population-125
        Variation (%) of bus occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
        Metropolitan population2020
        Non-metropolitan population2020
        Variation (%) of car occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
        Metropolitan population
        Non-metropolitan population
        Variation (%) of bus occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
        Metropolitan population
        Non-metropolitan population
  • 4. Technological development of vehicles
    • Car energy consumptions
        By how much new cars will reduce their energy consumption between 2010 and 2050?

        In 2010, the average energy efficiency of cars in France amounted to 2.3 MJ/vkm and the car stock was almost only composed by Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles.

        The energy consumption of new car sales reached

        ICE1.9MJ/vkm
        BEV0.2kWh/vkm
        FCEV1.3MJ/vkm

        ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


        Reduction (%) of energy consumption compared to 2010

        ICE20 %
        BEV10%
        FCEV20%

        Reduction (%) of energy consumption compared to 2010

        ICE%
        BEV%
        FCEV%
    • Car sale prices
        What will be the sale prices of new cars in 2050?

        In 2010, car mobility represented more than 80% of total passenger mobility and around 417 Gvkm (vehicle-km) with almost 100% based on diesel and gasoline cars. The penetration of alternative motorization is a key technological solution for the future and purchase price is a sensitive parameter in this regard.

        In 2010, purchase prices (including all taxes and subventions) amounted to:

        New ICE21 keur
        New CNG24 keur
        New BEV28 keur
        New PHEV30 keur
        New FCEV64 keur

        ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | CNG = Compressed Natural Gas | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


        Average final purchase price (all taxes/subventions included)

        New ICE29 keur/car
        New CNG25 keur/car
        New BEV20 keur/car
        New PHEV27 keur/car
        New FCEV23 keur/car

        Average final purchase price (all taxes/subventions included)

        New ICE keur/car
        New CNG keur/car
        New BEV keur/car
        New PHEV keur/car
        New FCEV keur/car
    • Mileage life car
        What will be the theoretical mileage over the lifetime of different car technologies in 2050?

        We estimated that the new ICE Liquid Fuel and Natural Gas car sold in 2010 had an average mileage life of 200 000 km.

        Related value of other technologies (% of new ICE sold):

        BEV60%
        PHEV70%
        FCEV60%

        BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


        By 2050, the mileage over the lifetime of new ICE cars amounts to 250 000 kilometers over its lifetime.

        Value in relation to other technologies:

        BEV100%
        PHEV100%
        FCEV100%

        By 2050, average mileage lifetime of new ICE cars amounts to kilometers

        Related value for other technologies:

        BEV%
        PHEV%
        FCEV%
    • Energy consumption for other vehicles
        By how much other models will reduce their energy consumption in 2050?

        The average energy consumption of the different modes in 2010 reached respectively :

        ICEelectricunit
        2W1.50.10MJ/vkm
        Buses 12.31.7MJ/vkm
        Rail0.450.11MJ/pkm
        Air domestic2.2—MJ/pkm
        Air international1.8—MJ/pkm
        Average efficiency gains compared to 2010 values are:
        ICEelectricunit
        2W10%0%MJ/vkm
        Buses15%15%MJ/vkm
        Rail5% 5%MJ/pkm
        Air domestic17%–MJ/pkm
        Air international17%–MJ/pkm
        Average efficiency gains compared to 2010-values are:
        ICEelectricunit
        2W%%MJ/vkm
        Buses%%MJ/vkm
        Rail%%MJ/pkm
        Air domestic%–MJ/pkm
        Air international%–MJ/pkm
  • 5. Fuel generation and carbon content
    • Electricity mix
        What will be the electricity mix in 2050 ?

        In 2010, average carbon content of final electricity is about 63 gCO2/kWh.

        In 2010, the French electric consumption came from

        Coal3%
        Liquid fuels1%
        Gas6%
        Nuclear75%
        Renewables (mainly hydro)15%

        In 2050, the French electric consumption will came from

        Coal0%
        Liquid fuels0%
        Gas4%
        Nuclear31%
        Renewables (solar, wind and hydro)65%

        In 2050, the French electric consumption will came from

        Coal%
        Liquid fuels%
        Gas%
        Nuclear%
        Renewables (solar, wind and hydro)%
    • Biofuels and hydrogen
        What will be the amount of biofuels and hydrogen produced for the transport sector in 2050 ?

        In 2010, about 0.03 EJ of bioethanol and biodiesel were produced, or about 3% of the total liquid fuels consumed that year.

      • Liquid biofuel generation could produce up to 0.08 EJ by 2050
      • Gaseous biofuel generation could produce up to 0.01 EJ by 2050
      • Hydrogen generated by electrolysis from renewable electricity could produce up to 0.0 EJ by 2050

      • Liquid biofuel generation could produce up to EJ by 2050
      • Gaseous biofuel generation could produce up to EJ by 2050
      • Hydrogen generated by electrolysis from renewable electricity could produce up to EJ by 2050
    • Fuel prices
        What will be the final fuel prices in 2050?

        Final fuel prices could change due to a variety of measures (taxes, new generation technologies, global price changes…)

        2010 average final liquid fuel prices

        Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels)1.2 €/liter
        Methane fuel (natural gas, biogas)1.1 €/kg
        Electricity0.1 €/kWh
        Hydrogen20.0 €/kg

        In 2050, the final fuel prices will reach:

        Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels)2.6 €/liter
        Methane fuel (natural gas, syngas, biogas)2.3 €/kg
        Electricity0.2 €/kWh
        Hydrogen 10.0 €/kg

        In 2050, the final fuel prices will reach:

        Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels) €/liter
        Methane fuel (natural gas, syngas, biogas) €/kg
        Electricity €/kWh
        Hydrogen €/kg
  • 6. Penetration of alternative motorizations in the car stock
    • Car ownership model
        What will be the motorization rate of households in 2050?

        The development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) supports the growth of a collaborative mobility economy and can change the way different transport modes are used. However, the ownership model depends on many other parameters, such as the evolution of households’ size and spending power, the availability of other modes of transport in rural areas, and issues related to social status.
        In 2010, France was home of 510 cars per 1000 inhabitants, or 31.1 million cars.

        319 veh / 1000’s inhabitants.
        veh / 1000’s inhabitants.
    • Car stock and sales
        What will the car fleet look like in 2050?

        In 2010, the car stock was made almost exclusively of liquid fuel cars. Over the period 2001-2010, about 2,2 million vehicles were sold per year, with a stock lifetime of around 14 years.
        Cars’ sale , final fuel prices and households’ spending capacity are related to the penetration of new vehicles.

        ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle

        Stock by vehicle motorization in 2050

        ICE stock45%
        CNG stock1%
        BEV stock22%
        PHEV stock32%
        FCEV stock0%

        Stock by vehicle motorization in 2050

        ICE stock%
        CNG stock%
        BEV stock%
        PHEV stock%
        FCEV stock%

        Real lifetime of the stock in 2050

        Average lifetime of car stock years

        Car sales shares by technology for the period 2041-2050:

        ICE share%
        CNG share%
        BEV share%
        PHEV share%
        FCEV share%
    • Electric and gas mobility for other modes
        What will be the place of electricity and gas in 2050’s mobility ?

        In 2010, the vast majority of the 2-3 wheelers was powered with liquid fuels. Bus mobility was supported at 98% with liquid fuels, but there were already signs of what was to come with gas and electric vehicles. Rail passenger kilometers were covered at 80% with electricity and the remaining 20% with liquid fuels. domestic and international air travels were only possible with liquid fuels. We do not enable the choice of electric aircraft or other alternatives to to liquid fuels for jet engines in 2050.

        Electrification of 2/3 wheeler mobility90% of 2W-vkm with electricity (the rest with liquid fuels)
        Electricfication of bus mobility40% of bus-vkm with electricity
        Development of gas mobility for buses25% of bus-vkm with gas (the rest with liquid fuels)
        Electrification of rail mobility93% of rail-pkm with electricity (the rest with liquid fuels)

        2W – kilometer travelled with electricity% (the rest with liquid fuels)
        Bus – kilometer travelled with electricity%
        Bus – kilometer travelled with methane gas% (the rest with liquid fuels)
        Rail – kilometer travelled with electricity% (the rest with liquid fuels)
  • 7. Income dedicated to transport, modal distribution and costs
    • Income dedicated to transport
        What will be the share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport in 2050 ?

        In 2010, the average household expenditure dedicated to mobility was 17% of disposable income. More information in: Les comptes des transports en 2015, CGDD, July 2016.

        Share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport sector

        • For metropolitan household, it amounts to 4.6%
      • For non-metropolitan household, it amounts to 8%

        • Share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport sector

      • For metropolitan household, it amounts to %
      • For non-metropolitan household, it amounts to %
    • Modal choice for constrained mobility
        Which modes of transport will be used for constrained mobility in 2050?

        In 2010, mobility for constrained purposes represented around 4,770 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 6,067 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.

        Different modes (% of pkm) and related prices were:

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitanAverage costs
        Car 61%86%0.17 €/pkm
        2W 1%1%0.17 €/pkm
        Bus 7%6%0.06 €/pkm
        Rail 15%2%0.01 €/pkm
        Air – domestic 2%1%0.04 €/pkm
        Air – international 10%3%0.02 €/pkm
        Non motorised 5%2%0.00 €/pkm

        Constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of constrained passenger-kilometer)

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car45%69%
        2W1%1%
        Bus6%7%
        Rail15%2%
        Air – domestic2%2%
        Air – international11%4%
        Non motorised20%16%

        Constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of constrained passenger-kilometer)

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car %%
        2W %%
        Bus %%
        Rail %%
        Air – domestic %%
        Air – international %%
        Non motorised %%

        Constrained mobility average modal price

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car (has been set before) €/pkm €/pkm
        2W €/pkm €/pkm
        Bus €/pkm €/pkm
        Rail €/pkm €/pkm
        Air – domestic €/pkm €/pkm
        Air – international €/pkm €/pkm
        Non motorised €/pkm €/pkm
    • Modal choice for non-constrained mobility
        Which modes of transport will be used for non-constrained mobility in 2050?

        In 2010, mobility for non-constrained purposes represented around 8,160 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 7,990 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.

        Different modes (% of passenger-kilometer) and the related prices were:

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitanAverage costs
        Car 58%66% 0.17 €/pkm
        2W0.5% 1% 0.17 €/pkm
        Bus4% 3% 0.06 €/pkm
        Rail10.5% 12.5% 0.01 €/pkm
        Air – domestic1%1% 0.04 €/pkm
        Air – international23%14.5% 0.02 €/pkm
        Non motorised3%2% 0.00 €/pkm

        Non-constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of non-constrained passenger kilometer)

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car52%52%
        2W0.5%1%
        Bus11%7%
        Rail12%24%
        Air – domestic0%0%
        Air – international15%9%
        Non motorised9.5%7%

        Non-constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of non-constrained passenger kilometer)

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car %%
        2W %%
        Bus %%
        Rail %%
        Air – domestic %%
        Air – international %%
        Non motorised %%

        Non-constrained mobility average modal price

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car (has been set before) €/pkm €/pkm
        2W €/pkm €/pkm
        Bus €/pkm €/pkm
        Rail €/pkm €/pkm
        Air – domestic €/pkm €/pkm
        Air – international €/pkm €/pkm
        Non motorised €/pkm €/pkm
  • 8. Speed, infrastructure and time dedicated to transport
    • Modal speeds for constrained mobility
        What will be the speed of travel for constrained activities using different modes in 2050?

        In 2010, the average speed to carry out constrained activities was:

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car34 km/h38 km/h
        2W26 km/h30 km/h
        Bus16 km/h19 km/h
        Rail24 km/h6 km/h
        Non motorised4 km/h4 km/h

        Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.

        Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car38 km/h40 km/h
        2W28 km/h32 km/h
        Bus18 km/h23 km/h
        Rail26 km/h5 km/h
        Non motorised8 km/h9 km/h

        Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car km/h km/h
        2W km/h km/h
        Bus km/h km/h
        Rail km/h km/h
        Non motorised km/h km/h
    • Modal speeds for non-constrained mobility
        What will be the speed of travel for non-constrained activities using different modes in 2050?

        In 2010, the average speed to carry out non-constrained activities was:

        MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car34 km/h38 km/h
        2W26 km/h30 km/h
        Bus16 km/h19 km/h
        Rail24 km/h6 km/h
        Non motorised4 km/h4 km/h

        Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.

        Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car38 km/h40 km/h
        2W28 km/h32 km/h
        Bus18 km/h23 km/h
        Rail26 km/h5 km/h
        Non motorised8 km/h9 km/h

        Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
        Car km/h km/h
        2W km/h km/h
        Bus km/h km/h
        Rail km/h km/h
        Non motorised km/h km/h
    • Please validate all 8 sections
. .

Visualise your pathway

Description of the transformations of the passenger transport sector in France by 2050

Click on “Storyline” button above to add storyline.
Note that you should validate all sections marked with a red dot to build your scenario
Display StackedBar values as %
Click on “Dashboard” button to add dashboard data table
Click on “Assumptions” button to add assunption data table

    Data for this country are under validation process.
    They will soon be available