MOB – Passenger Transport – Build – Test Custom Html

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Pathway building tool

This website hosts a pathway building tool based on the DDP Approach that allows to articulate physical and socio-economic transformations to develop new decarbonisation pathways.

You will need from one to a few hours to develop your first pathway, depending on your expertise and knowledge.
Starting from the development of your storyline, throughout eight categories of transformations, you can then visualize your pathway in six graphic categories. At this stage, you can compare your scenario with another one, validate and save its different elements (story, computation, dashboard and graphs) or go back to correct your storyline.


We also offer the possibility for external partners to join and support the community in:

  • expanding the country coverage of the analysis (calibration data form ).
  • sharing your pathway for integration in the collective database (submission form ).

    • Here is a beta version to build pathways for the passenger transport sector in France.
    It will be regularly updated and enriched with new countries and sectors, starting with freight transport.

    Let’s try it!Beta version

    In which country would you like to build a passenger transport decarbonization pathways?

    Please select a sector Passenger transport Freight transport Please select a country France <!– UK Japan Mexico –>
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    Develop your storyline(Click on section labels to build your pathway)

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    • How to develop your storyline (for more information, click here)
        What is a storyline for decarbonization?:

        Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.

        Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.

        For each question, you can choose one of these answers:

        A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway

        A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value

        “Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.

        A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.

        You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.

        Validation of the storyline:

        If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.

        If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers,
        the “red light” turns into “grey light” .

        If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,
        the “red light” turns into “green light” .

        Summary representations after the development and validation of your storyline

        Look at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.

        Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.

        Download your full pathway composed by the Storyline, the graphic Dashboard and all the intermediate data computed: you will find a print button (IMAGE), click and scroll to the end to “Print this page”.

        Display another set of value to compare with your scenario :

        You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.

        <!– Download your scenario

        Without registration: you can develop scenarios, look at the graphs and download your assumptions, storylines and dashboard graphic representations in a PDF version.

        You need to create a free account to save your scenario in a private interface.

        –>

        Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes

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    • 1. Demography and economics
      • Population
          What will be the size of your country population in 2050?

          In 2010, France had a population of about 60 901 thousand citizens over 6 years, for a total of around 65 million people.
          Note: The mobility of children under 6 years is not considered.

          69 065 thousands citizens.
          thousands citizens.
      • Household size
          What will be the average household size in 2050?

          In 2010, the average French households were composed by 2.2 people.

          2.0 pers./household.
          pers./household.
      • Household income
          What will be the average household disposable income in 2050?

          In 2010, the average household disposable income in France amounted to 23,000 eur and the total household disposable income was about 30% of GDP. Over the period 2000-2010, the average annual GDP growth was 1.4% per year.

          32,000 eur/year
          k€/year.

        • Average annual GDP growth over the period 2010-2050: %/year
        • Total household disposable incomes is around: % of GDP in 2050
    • 2. Human settlement, land development and spatial organization
      • Metropolitan population
          What will be the share of the population living in Metropolitan areas in 2050?

          In 2010, about 25% of the population lived in metropolitan areas and 75% in non-metropolitan areas, of which half in suburban areas and the other half in rural areas. The metropolitan areas in France have been defined as: Paris, Departments of the Paris region 92-93-94 and all city centers of “urban poles” with more than 100,000 inhabitants. in 2008 (the smallest city center is the city of Montbéliard with about 25,000 inhabitants).

          24% of the population.
          % of the population.
      • Constrained mobility for metropolitan households
          What will be the average distance travelled for constrained mobility in metropolitan areas in 2050?

          In 2010, a French citizen living in metropolitan areas travelled approximately 4,770 km / year to connect his different constrained activities. Constrained activities are defined as work-and shopping and acces to public services like schools, health, sport and other social facilities, where your freedom to decide whether or not to complete this activity is limited.

          4,100 km per capita (pkm/cap) for constrained mobility for inhabitants of metropolitan areas.
          km per capita (pkm/cap) for constrained mobility for inhabitants of metropolitan areas.
      • Constrained mobility for non-metropolitan households
          How will the distance between constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas change in 2050?

          In 2010, a French citizen living in Non-Metropolitan areas had to travel about 27% more than a French citizen living in Metropolitan areas to connect his different constrained activities. This means that the different constrained activities (work, home, going to school and reaching other public services) were further away from each other.


          The distance to connect the constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas will be reduced to 10 % in 2050.
          The distance between constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitanareas will be reduced to % by 2050.
    • 3. Sociocultural practices and lifestyles
      • Teleworking for metropolitan households
          In metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking ?

          Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activities and requires daily commuting. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.

          4% of total constrained activities.
          % of total constrained activities.
        • Share of population concerned by teleworking in 2050 : % metropolitan population in 2050
        • Days of teleworking for a concerned employee in Metropolitan areas in 2050: days/month
      • Teleworking for non-metropolitan households
          In non-metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking?

          Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activity which needs a daily commuting activity. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.

          4% of total constrained activities.
          % of total constrained activities.
        • Population Share concerned by teleworking in 2050: % Non-metropolitan Population in 2050
        • Days of teleworking for a concerned employee in Non-metropolitan Population in 2050: days/month
      • ICTs and collaborative mobility
          What will be the occupancy rate of vehicles in 2050 due to development of the collaborative mobility?

          The development of Information and Communication Technologies and other tehnological transformations will support the development of the collaborative mobility. In 2010, the average occupancy rate of cars amounted to 1.43 persons:

          Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
          Metropolitan population1.291.46
          Non-metropolitan population 1.36 1.53

          Variation (%) of car occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
          Metropolitan population160
          Non-metropolitan population-125
          Variation (%) of bus occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
          Metropolitan population2020
          Non-metropolitan population2020
          Variation (%) of car occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
          Metropolitan population
          Non-metropolitan population
          Variation (%) of bus occupancy rate (pass/veh)Constrained tripsNon constrained trips
          Metropolitan population
          Non-metropolitan population
    • 4. Technological development of vehicles
      • Car energy consumptions
          By how much new cars will reduce their energy consumption between 2010 and 2050?

          In 2010, the average energy efficiency of cars in France amounted to 2.3 MJ/vkm and the car stock was almost only composed by Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles.

          The energy consumption of new car sales reached

          ICE1.9MJ/vkm
          BEV0.2kWh/vkm
          FCEV1.3MJ/vkm

          ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


          Reduction (%) of energy consumption compared to 2010

          ICE20 %
          BEV10%
          FCEV20%

          Reduction (%) of energy consumption compared to 2010

          ICE%
          BEV%
          FCEV%
      • Car sale prices
          What will be the sale prices of new cars in 2050?

          In 2010, car mobility represented more than 80% of total passenger mobility and around 417 Gvkm (vehicle-km) with almost 100% based on diesel and gasoline cars. The penetration of alternative motorization is a key technological solution for the future and purchase price is a sensitive parameter in this regard.

          In 2010, purchase prices (including all taxes and subventions) amounted to:

          New ICE21 keur
          New CNG24 keur
          New BEV28 keur
          New PHEV30 keur
          New FCEV64 keur

          ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | CNG = Compressed Natural Gas | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


          Average final purchase price (all taxes/subventions included)

          New ICE29 keur/car
          New CNG25 keur/car
          New BEV20 keur/car
          New PHEV27 keur/car
          New FCEV23 keur/car

          Average final purchase price (all taxes/subventions included)

          New ICE keur/car
          New CNG keur/car
          New BEV keur/car
          New PHEV keur/car
          New FCEV keur/car
      • Mileage life car
          What will be the theoretical mileage over the lifetime of different car technologies in 2050?

          We estimated that the new ICE Liquid Fuel and Natural Gas car sold in 2010 had an average mileage life of 200 000 km.

          Related value of other technologies (% of new ICE sold):

          BEV60%
          PHEV70%
          FCEV60%

          BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle


          By 2050, the mileage over the lifetime of new ICE cars amounts to 250 000 kilometers over its lifetime.

          Value in relation to other technologies:

          BEV100%
          PHEV100%
          FCEV100%

          By 2050, average mileage lifetime of new ICE cars amounts to kilometers

          Related value for other technologies:

          BEV%
          PHEV%
          FCEV%
      • Energy consumption for other vehicles
          By how much other models will reduce their energy consumption in 2050?

          The average energy consumption of the different modes in 2010 reached respectively :

          ICEelectricunit
          2W1.50.10MJ/vkm
          Buses 12.31.7MJ/vkm
          Rail0.450.11MJ/pkm
          Air domestic2.2—MJ/pkm
          Air international1.8—MJ/pkm
          Average efficiency gains compared to 2010 values are:
          ICEelectricunit
          2W10%0%MJ/vkm
          Buses15%15%MJ/vkm
          Rail5% 5%MJ/pkm
          Air domestic17%–MJ/pkm
          Air international17%–MJ/pkm
          Average efficiency gains compared to 2010-values are:
          ICEelectricunit
          2W%%MJ/vkm
          Buses%%MJ/vkm
          Rail%%MJ/pkm
          Air domestic%–MJ/pkm
          Air international%–MJ/pkm
    • 5. Fuel generation and carbon content
      • Electricity mix
          What will be the electricity mix in 2050 ?

          In 2010, average carbon content of final electricity is about 63 gCO2/kWh.

          In 2010, the French electric consumption came from

          Coal3%
          Liquid fuels1%
          Gas6%
          Nuclear75%
          Renewables (mainly hydro)15%

          In 2050, the French electric consumption will came from

          Coal0%
          Liquid fuels0%
          Gas4%
          Nuclear31%
          Renewables (solar, wind and hydro)65%

          In 2050, the French electric consumption will came from

          Coal%
          Liquid fuels%
          Gas%
          Nuclear%
          Renewables (solar, wind and hydro)%
      • Biofuels and hydrogen
          What will be the amount of biofuels and hydrogen produced for the transport sector in 2050 ?

          In 2010, about 0.03 EJ of bioethanol and biodiesel were produced, or about 3% of the total liquid fuels consumed that year.

        • Liquid biofuel generation could produce up to 0.08 EJ by 2050
        • Gaseous biofuel generation could produce up to 0.01 EJ by 2050
        • Hydrogen generated by electrolysis from renewable electricity could produce up to 0.0 EJ by 2050

        • Liquid biofuel generation could produce up to EJ by 2050
        • Gaseous biofuel generation could produce up to EJ by 2050
        • Hydrogen generated by electrolysis from renewable electricity could produce up to EJ by 2050
      • Fuel prices
          What will be the final fuel prices in 2050?

          Final fuel prices could change due to a variety of measures (taxes, new generation technologies, global price changes…)

          2010 average final liquid fuel prices

          Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels)1.2 €/liter
          Methane fuel (natural gas, biogas)1.1 €/kg
          Electricity0.1 €/kWh
          Hydrogen20.0 €/kg

          In 2050, the final fuel prices will reach:

          Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels)2.6 €/liter
          Methane fuel (natural gas, syngas, biogas)2.3 €/kg
          Electricity0.2 €/kWh
          Hydrogen 10.0 €/kg

          In 2050, the final fuel prices will reach:

          Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels) €/liter
          Methane fuel (natural gas, syngas, biogas) €/kg
          Electricity €/kWh
          Hydrogen €/kg
    • 6. Penetration of alternative motorizations in the car stock
      • Car ownership model
          What will be the motorization rate of households in 2050?

          The development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) supports the growth of a collaborative mobility economy and can change the way different transport modes are used. However, the ownership model depends on many other parameters, such as the evolution of households’ size and spending power, the availability of other modes of transport in rural areas, and issues related to social status.
          In 2010, France was home of 510 cars per 1000 inhabitants, or 31.1 million cars.

          319 veh / 1000’s inhabitants.
          veh / 1000’s inhabitants.
      • Car stock and sales
          What will the car fleet look like in 2050?

          In 2010, the car stock was made almost exclusively of liquid fuel cars. Over the period 2001-2010, about 2,2 million vehicles were sold per year, with a stock lifetime of around 14 years.
          Cars’ sale , final fuel prices and households’ spending capacity are related to the penetration of new vehicles.

          ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle

          Stock by vehicle motorization in 2050

          ICE stock45%
          CNG stock1%
          BEV stock22%
          PHEV stock32%
          FCEV stock0%

          Stock by vehicle motorization in 2050

          ICE stock%
          CNG stock%
          BEV stock%
          PHEV stock%
          FCEV stock%

          Real lifetime of the stock in 2050

          Average lifetime of car stock years

          Car sales shares by technology for the period 2041-2050:

          ICE share%
          CNG share%
          BEV share%
          PHEV share%
          FCEV share%
      • Electric and gas mobility for other modes
          What will be the place of electricity and gas in 2050’s mobility ?

          In 2010, the vast majority of the 2-3 wheelers was powered with liquid fuels. Bus mobility was supported at 98% with liquid fuels, but there were already signs of what was to come with gas and electric vehicles. Rail passenger kilometers were covered at 80% with electricity and the remaining 20% with liquid fuels. domestic and international air travels were only possible with liquid fuels. We do not enable the choice of electric aircraft or other alternatives to to liquid fuels for jet engines in 2050.

          Electrification of 2/3 wheeler mobility90% of 2W-vkm with electricity (the rest with liquid fuels)
          Electricfication of bus mobility40% of bus-vkm with electricity
          Development of gas mobility for buses25% of bus-vkm with gas (the rest with liquid fuels)
          Electrification of rail mobility93% of rail-pkm with electricity (the rest with liquid fuels)

          2W – kilometer travelled with electricity% (the rest with liquid fuels)
          Bus – kilometer travelled with electricity%
          Bus – kilometer travelled with methane gas% (the rest with liquid fuels)
          Rail – kilometer travelled with electricity% (the rest with liquid fuels)
    • 7. Income dedicated to transport, modal distribution and costs
      • Income dedicated to transport
          What will be the share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport in 2050 ?

          In 2010, the average household expenditure dedicated to mobility was 17% of disposable income. More information in: Les comptes des transports en 2015, CGDD, July 2016.

          Share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport sector

          • For metropolitan household, it amounts to 4.6%
        • For non-metropolitan household, it amounts to 8%

          • Share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport sector

        • For metropolitan household, it amounts to %
        • For non-metropolitan household, it amounts to %
      • Modal choice for constrained mobility
          Which modes of transport will be used for constrained mobility in 2050?

          In 2010, mobility for constrained purposes represented around 4,770 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 6,067 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.

          Different modes (% of pkm) and related prices were:

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitanAverage costs
          Car 61%86%0.17 €/pkm
          2W 1%1%0.17 €/pkm
          Bus 7%6%0.06 €/pkm
          Rail 15%2%0.01 €/pkm
          Air – domestic 2%1%0.04 €/pkm
          Air – international 10%3%0.02 €/pkm
          Non motorised 5%2%0.00 €/pkm

          Constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of constrained passenger-kilometer)

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car45%69%
          2W1%1%
          Bus6%7%
          Rail15%2%
          Air – domestic2%2%
          Air – international11%4%
          Non motorised20%16%

          Constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of constrained passenger-kilometer)

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car %%
          2W %%
          Bus %%
          Rail %%
          Air – domestic %%
          Air – international %%
          Non motorised %%

          Constrained mobility average modal price

          <!– –>
          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car (has been set before) xlG320 €/pkmxlG320 €/pkm
          Car (has been set before) €/pkm €/pkm
          2W €/pkm €/pkm
          Bus €/pkm €/pkm
          Rail €/pkm €/pkm
          Air – domestic €/pkm €/pkm
          Air – international €/pkm €/pkm
          Non motorised €/pkm €/pkm
      • Modal choice for non-constrained mobility
          Which modes of transport will be used for non-constrained mobility in 2050?

          In 2010, mobility for non-constrained purposes represented around 8,160 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 7,990 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.

          Different modes (% of passenger-kilometer) and the related prices were:

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitanAverage costs
          Car 58%66% 0.17 €/pkm
          2W0.5% 1% 0.17 €/pkm
          Bus4% 3% 0.06 €/pkm
          Rail10.5% 12.5% 0.01 €/pkm
          Air – domestic1%1% 0.04 €/pkm
          Air – international23%14.5% 0.02 €/pkm
          Non motorised3%2% 0.00 €/pkm

          Non-constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of non-constrained passenger kilometer)

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car52%52%
          2W0.5%1%
          Bus11%7%
          Rail12%24%
          Air – domestic0%0%
          Air – international15%9%
          Non motorised9.5%7%

          Non-constrained mobility distribution among modes (% of non-constrained passenger kilometer)

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car %%
          2W %%
          Bus %%
          Rail %%
          Air – domestic %%
          Air – international %%
          Non motorised %%

          Non-constrained mobility average modal price

          <!– –>
          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car (has been set before) xlG320 €/pkmxlG320 €/pkm
          Car (has been set before) €/pkm €/pkm
          2W €/pkm €/pkm
          Bus €/pkm €/pkm
          Rail €/pkm €/pkm
          Air – domestic €/pkm €/pkm
          Air – international €/pkm €/pkm
          Non motorised €/pkm €/pkm
    • 8. Speed, infrastructure and time dedicated to transport
      • Modal speeds for constrained mobility
          What will be the speed of travel for constrained activities using different modes in 2050?

          In 2010, the average speed to carry out constrained activities was:

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car34 km/h38 km/h
          2W26 km/h30 km/h
          Bus16 km/h19 km/h
          Rail24 km/h6 km/h
          Non motorised4 km/h4 km/h

          Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.

          Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car38 km/h40 km/h
          2W28 km/h32 km/h
          Bus18 km/h23 km/h
          Rail26 km/h5 km/h
          Non motorised8 km/h9 km/h

          Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car km/h km/h
          2W km/h km/h
          Bus km/h km/h
          Rail km/h km/h
          Non motorised km/h km/h
      • Modal speeds for non-constrained mobility
          What will be the speed of travel for non-constrained activities using different modes in 2050?

          In 2010, the average speed to carry out non-constrained activities was:

          MetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car34 km/h38 km/h
          2W26 km/h30 km/h
          Bus16 km/h19 km/h
          Rail24 km/h6 km/h
          Non motorised4 km/h4 km/h

          Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.

          Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car38 km/h40 km/h
          2W28 km/h32 km/h
          Bus18 km/h23 km/h
          Rail26 km/h5 km/h
          Non motorised8 km/h9 km/h

          Average modal speedMetropolitanNon-metropolitan
          Car km/h km/h
          2W km/h km/h
          Bus km/h km/h
          Rail km/h km/h
          Non motorised km/h km/h
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    –> <!– –> <!– Scenarios comparison –> <!–
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    <!– –>

    Visualise your pathway for {sector}

    <!–

    Scenarios

    –>
    <!– –>

    Description of the transformations of the passenger transport sector in France by 2050

    Click on “Storyline” button above to add storyline.
    Note that you should validate all sections marked with a red dot to build your scenario
    Click on “Dashboard” button to add dashboard data table
    Click on “Assumptions” button to add assunption data table
    <!–
    Scenario designed by XXX
    –> <!–
    –>

      <!–

      Graphs

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      Data for this country are under validation process.
      They will soon be available

      <!– Go to private access… –>
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