Pathway building tool
This website hosts a pathway building tool based on the DDP Approach that allows to articulate physical and socio-economic transformations to develop new decarbonisation pathways.
You will need from one to a few hours to develop your first pathway, depending on your expertise and knowledge.
Starting from the development of your storyline, throughout eight categories of transformations, you can then visualize your pathway in six graphic categories. At this stage, you can compare your scenario with another one, validate and save its different elements (story, computation, dashboard and graphs) or go back to correct your storyline.
We also offer the possibility for external partners to join and support the community in:
Here is a beta version to build pathways for the passenger transport sector in France.
It will be regularly updated and enriched with new countries and sectors, starting with freight transport.
Let’s try it!Beta version
In which country would you like to build a passenger transport decarbonization pathways?
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Develop your storyline(Click on section labels to build your pathway)
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How to develop your storyline (for more information, click here)
What is a storyline for decarbonization?:Each category of drivers includes between two and four questions.
Each subcategory is composed of “one question” in bold black, “A text of information on the 2010’s situation” in italic grey and two or three “modes of answers”.
For each question, you can choose one of these answers:
A “direct assumption” with a proposed reference value based on a pre-defined pathway
A “direct assumption” with an open choice for the value
“Other underlying assumptions” with the opportunity of an indirect answer.
A reference pathway is used to provide default values for each first answers and it corresponds to the values of one pathway defined with national experts during the development of a case study.
You can answer this question by using model inputs or outputs, international or national benchmarks or expert-based analysis and discussions.
Validation of the storyline:If you do not validate all sections, the default values corresponding to the first answers of each question will be used to compute the graph representations.
If you validate a section and conserve all its pre-defined answers, the “red light” turns into “grey light” .
If you validate a section and modify at least one of the pre-defined answers of the section,the “red light” turns into “green light” .
Summary representations after the development and validation of your storylineLook at all your assumptions and answers summarised in a “Full Story” under the different categories of drivers.
Check some quantitative indicators representing your pathway summarized by the limited number of graphs at the end.
Download your full pathway composed by the Storyline, the graphic Dashboard and all the intermediate data computed: you will find a print button (IMAGE), click and scroll to the end to “Print this page”.
Display another set of value to compare with your scenario :You can choose to display another scenario data set while building your scenario.
Read more on the online-modelling constraints: technical notes
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1. Demography and economics
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Population
What will be the size of your country population in 2050?
In 2010, France had a population of about 60 901 thousand citizens over 6 years, for a total of around 65 million people.
Note: The mobility of children under 6 years is not considered.
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Population
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Household size
What will be the average household size in 2050?
In 2010, the average French households were composed by 2.2 people.
What will be the average household disposable income in 2050?
In 2010, the average household disposable income in France amounted to 23,000 eur and the total household disposable income was about 30% of GDP. Over the period 2000-2010, the average annual GDP growth was 1.4% per year.
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Metropolitan population
What will be the share of the population living in Metropolitan areas in 2050?
In 2010, about 25% of the population lived in metropolitan areas and 75% in non-metropolitan areas, of which half in suburban areas and the other half in rural areas. The metropolitan areas in France have been defined as: Paris, Departments of the Paris region 92-93-94 and all city centers of "urban poles" with more than 100,000 inhabitants. in 2008 (the smallest city center is the city of Montbéliard with about 25,000 inhabitants).
What will be the average distance travelled for constrained mobility in metropolitan areas in 2050?
In 2010, a French citizen living in metropolitan areas travelled approximately 4,770 km / year to connect his different constrained activities. Constrained activities are defined as work-and shopping and acces to public services like schools, health, sport and other social facilities, where your freedom to decide whether or not to complete this activity is limited.
How will the distance between constrained activities in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas change in 2050?
In 2010, a French citizen living in Non-Metropolitan areas had to travel about 27% more than a French citizen living in Metropolitan areas to connect his different constrained activities. This means that the different constrained activities (work, home, going to school and reaching other public services) were further away from each other.
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Teleworking for metropolitan households
In metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking ?
Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activities and requires daily commuting. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.
In non-metropolitan areas, which share of constrained mobility will be removed by 2050 due to teleworking?
Many remote activities are now possible thanks to the rapid development of telecommunications. Working is one of the most constrained activity which needs a daily commuting activity. In 2010, commuting represented 44% of the constrained distance travelled.
What will be the occupancy rate of vehicles in 2050 due to development of the collaborative mobility?
The development of Information and Communication Technologies and other tehnological transformations will support the development of the collaborative mobility. In 2010, the average occupancy rate of cars amounted to 1.43 persons:
| Constrained trips | Non constrained trips | |
|---|---|---|
| Metropolitan population | 1.29 | 1.46 |
| Non-metropolitan population | 1.36 | 1.53 |
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Car energy consumptions
By how much new cars will reduce their energy consumption between 2010 and 2050?
In 2010, the average energy efficiency of cars in France amounted to 2.3 MJ/vkm and the car stock was almost only composed by Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles.
The energy consumption of new car sales reached
ICE 1.9 MJ/vkm BEV 0.2 kWh/vkm FCEV 1.3 MJ/vkm ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle
What will be the sale prices of new cars in 2050?
In 2010, car mobility represented more than 80% of total passenger mobility and around 417 Gvkm (vehicle-km) with almost 100% based on diesel and gasoline cars. The penetration of alternative motorization is a key technological solution for the future and purchase price is a sensitive parameter in this regard.
In 2010, purchase prices (including all taxes and subventions) amounted to:
| New ICE | 21 keur |
|---|---|
| New CNG | 24 keur |
| New BEV | 28 keur |
| New PHEV | 30 keur |
| New FCEV | 64 keur |
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | CNG = Compressed Natural Gas | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle
What will be the theoretical mileage over the lifetime of different car technologies in 2050?
We estimated that the new ICE Liquid Fuel and Natural Gas car sold in 2010 had an average mileage life of 200 000 km.
Related value of other technologies (% of new ICE sold):
| BEV | 60% |
|---|---|
| PHEV | 70% |
| FCEV | 60% |
BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle
By how much other models will reduce their energy consumption in 2050?
The average energy consumption of the different modes in 2010 reached respectively :
| ICE | electric | unit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2W | 1.5 | 0.10 | MJ/vkm |
| Buses | 12.3 | 1.7 | MJ/vkm |
| Rail | 0.45 | 0.11 | MJ/pkm |
| Air domestic | 2.2 | -- | MJ/pkm |
| Air international | 1.8 | -- | MJ/pkm |
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Electricity mix
What will be the electricity mix in 2050 ?
In 2010, average carbon content of final electricity is about 63 gCO2/kWh.
In 2010, the French electric consumption came from
Coal 3% Liquid fuels 1% Gas 6% Nuclear 75% Renewables (mainly hydro) 15%
What will be the amount of biofuels and hydrogen produced for the transport sector in 2050 ?
In 2010, about 0.03 EJ of bioethanol and biodiesel were produced, or about 3% of the total liquid fuels consumed that year.
What will be the final fuel prices in 2050?
Final fuel prices could change due to a variety of measures (taxes, new generation technologies, global price changes…)
2010 average final liquid fuel prices
| Liquid fuel (diesel, gasoline, liquid biofuels) | 1.2 €/liter |
|---|---|
| Methane fuel (natural gas, biogas) | 1.1 €/kg |
| Electricity | 0.1 €/kWh |
| Hydrogen | 20.0 €/kg |
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Car ownership model
What will be the motorization rate of households in 2050?
The development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) supports the growth of a collaborative mobility economy and can change the way different transport modes are used. However, the ownership model depends on many other parameters, such as the evolution of households’ size and spending power, the availability of other modes of transport in rural areas, and issues related to social status. In 2010, France was home of 510 cars per 1000 inhabitants, or 31.1 million cars.
What will the car fleet look like in 2050?
In 2010, the car stock was made almost exclusively of liquid fuel cars. Over the period 2001-2010, about 2,2 million vehicles were sold per year, with a stock lifetime of around 14 years.
Cars’ sale , final fuel prices and households’ spending capacity are related to the penetration of new vehicles.
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine | BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle | PHEV = Plug-and-Hybrid Electric Vehicle | FCEV= Fuel-Cell Electric Vehicle
What will be the place of electricity and gas in 2050’s mobility ?
In 2010, the vast majority of the 2-3 wheelers was powered with liquid fuels. Bus mobility was supported at 98% with liquid fuels, but there were already signs of what was to come with gas and electric vehicles. Rail passenger kilometers were covered at 80% with electricity and the remaining 20% with liquid fuels. domestic and international air travels were only possible with liquid fuels. We do not enable the choice of electric aircraft or other alternatives to to liquid fuels for jet engines in 2050.
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Income dedicated to transport
What will be the share of the household disposable income dedicated to transport in 2050 ?
In 2010, the average household expenditure dedicated to mobility was 17% of disposable income. More information in: Les comptes des transports en 2015, CGDD, July 2016.
Which modes of transport will be used for constrained mobility in 2050?
In 2010, mobility for constrained purposes represented around 4,770 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 6,067 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.
Different modes (% of pkm) and related prices were:
| Metropolitan | Non-metropolitan | Average costs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Car | 61% | 86% | 0.17 €/pkm |
| 2W | 1% | 1% | 0.17 €/pkm |
| Bus | 7% | 6% | 0.06 €/pkm |
| Rail | 15% | 2% | 0.01 €/pkm |
| Air - domestic | 2% | 1% | 0.04 €/pkm |
| Air - international | 10% | 3% | 0.02 €/pkm |
| Non motorised | 5% | 2% | 0.00 €/pkm |
Which modes of transport will be used for non-constrained mobility in 2050?
In 2010, mobility for non-constrained purposes represented around 8,160 pkm for metropolitan individuals and 7,990 pkm for non-metropolitan individuals.
Different modes (% of passenger-kilometer) and the related prices were:
| Metropolitan | Non-metropolitan | Average costs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Car | 58% | 66% | 0.17 €/pkm |
| 2W | 0.5% | 1% | 0.17 €/pkm |
| Bus | 4% | 3% | 0.06 €/pkm |
| Rail | 10.5% | 12.5% | 0.01 €/pkm |
| Air - domestic | 1% | 1% | 0.04 €/pkm |
| Air - international | 23% | 14.5% | 0.02 €/pkm |
| Non motorised | 3% | 2% | 0.00 €/pkm |
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Modal speeds for constrained mobility
What will be the speed of travel for constrained activities using different modes in 2050?
In 2010, the average speed to carry out constrained activities was:
Metropolitan Non-metropolitan Car 34 km/h 38 km/h 2W 26 km/h 30 km/h Bus 16 km/h 19 km/h Rail 24 km/h 6 km/h Non motorised 4 km/h 4 km/h Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.
What will be the speed of travel for non-constrained activities using different modes in 2050?
In 2010, the average speed to carry out non-constrained activities was:
| Metropolitan | Non-metropolitan | |
|---|---|---|
| Car | 34 km/h | 38 km/h |
| 2W | 26 km/h | 30 km/h |
| Bus | 16 km/h | 19 km/h |
| Rail | 24 km/h | 6 km/h |
| Non motorised | 4 km/h | 4 km/h |
Note : Air transport is excluded from this calculation.